Counting the Uncounted: Population-Level Surveillance of Documented Pregnancy and Fetal Harm in Police Crash Narratives with a System One Model (Jev)
Abstract
Motor-vehicle crashes are a leading cause of traumatic fetal death in the United States, yet no crash database records pregnancy. Existing estimates come from national investigation samples with wide intervals, trauma registries seeing only the injured, or record linkage in a few states. Police narratives record pregnancy whenever it matters at the scene, and no study has read them at population scale. We read every police crash narrative in Texas from 2017 through 2025, 5,018,079 in total. A regular-expression screen flags 6,840 candidates, which Jev, a calibrated System One decision model, reads under an eight-question schema, returning probabilities and no text. It confirms 5,333 as documenting a pregnant person involved in the crash, with role, stage and post-crash condition. The same model reads 499,306 of the remainder under the presence question, to estimate what the screen missed. Blind human adjudication of a probability-stratified sample gives weighted sensitivity 0.999 and specificity 1.000, from which the Rogan-Gladen estimator and a bootstrap give 5,467 crashes with a documented pregnancy, with a 95% interval of 5,306 to 5,577, including 58 crashes documenting fetal harm. Person-level records give a rate of 1.13 to 1.45 per 1,000 female drivers aged 15 to 49. Measured against a live-birth expectation from vital statistics, narratives document 2.56% to 3.09% of expected pregnant drivers, and documented-case status is most strongly associated with the driver's own recorded injury, at an odds ratio of 21.7.
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BibTeX
@misc{rafe2026counting,
title = {{Counting the Uncounted: Population-Level Surveillance of Documented Pregnancy and Fetal Harm in Police Crash Narratives with a System One Model (Jev)}},
author = {Amir Rafe and Subasish Das},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.00213},
eprint = {2610.00213},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.00213},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Counting the Uncounted: Population-Level Surveillance of Documented Pregnancy and Fetal Harm in Police Crash Narratives with a System One Model (Jev)
AU - Amir Rafe
AU - Subasish Das
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.00213
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.00213
AB - Motor-vehicle crashes are a leading cause of traumatic fetal death in the United States, yet no crash database records pregnancy. Existing estimates come from national investigation samples with wide intervals, trauma registries seeing only the injured, or record linkage in a few states. Police narratives record pregnancy whenever it matters at the scene, and no study has read them at population scale. We read every police crash narrative in Texas from 2017 through 2025, 5,018,079 in total. A regular-expression screen flags 6,840 candidates, which Jev, a calibrated System One decision model, reads under an eight-question schema, returning probabilities and no text. It confirms 5,333 as documenting a pregnant person involved in the crash, with role, stage and post-crash condition. The same model reads 499,306 of the remainder under the presence question, to estimate what the screen missed. Blind human adjudication of a probability-stratified sample gives weighted sensitivity 0.999 and specificity 1.000, from which the Rogan-Gladen estimator and a bootstrap give 5,467 crashes with a documented pregnancy, with a 95% interval of 5,306 to 5,577, including 58 crashes documenting fetal harm. Person-level records give a rate of 1.13 to 1.45 per 1,000 female drivers aged 15 to 49. Measured against a live-birth expectation from vital statistics, narratives document 2.56% to 3.09% of expected pregnant drivers, and documented-case status is most strongly associated with the driver's own recorded injury, at an odds ratio of 21.7.
ER -