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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NCClinical interventions in aging

Analysis of Risk Factors and Development of a Predictive Model for 1-Year Mortality After Acute Hip Fracture Surgery in Patients Aged ≥80 Years: The Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Potential Predictor.

  • Shikai Li1,2
  • Sheng Lu1,2,3
  • Long Zhang1,2
  • Delong Yin4
  • Zhenbo Fan1,2
  • Weihuang Wen1,2
  • Shangbin Zhang1,2
4 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Orthopedics, The Third Affiliated Hospital Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
  2. 2Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Obstetric Diseases, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Obstetrics and Gynecology, The Third Affiliated Hospital Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
  3. 3Department of Orthopedics, ShiPai Hospital of Dongguan, Dongguan, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
  4. 4Center of Orthopedics and Sports Medicine, Heyou Hospital, Foshan, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
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Abstract

Objective

To investigate independent risk factors for 1-year mortality after acute hip-fracture surgery in patients aged ≥80 years and construct a risk-stratification nomogram to identify high-risk patients for intensified postoperative monitoring and preventive interventions.Methods

This retrospective study enrolled patients aged ≥80 years undergoing hip-fracture surgery (2017-2024). Candidate predictors included baseline, surgical, and laboratory variables. Independent predictors were selected via univariate-multivariate logistic and LASSO regression. Nomogram performance was assessed using ROC analysis, calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis (DCA).Results

In total, 463 patients were randomly split into 7:3 training-validation cohorts. Sex, age, comorbidity count, preoperative PNI, hemoglobin, creatinine, and postoperative NLR were independent predictors of 1-year all-cause mortality. The derived nomogram showed favorable discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit.Conclusion

This internally validated nomogram integrating PNI and other risk factors predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients aged ≥80 years with hip fracture and may support clinical risk-stratification decisions.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{li2026analysis,
  title = {{Analysis of Risk Factors and Development of a Predictive Model for 1-Year Mortality After Acute Hip Fracture Surgery in Patients Aged ≥80 Years: The Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Potential Predictor.}},
  author = {Shikai Li and Sheng Lu and Long Zhang and Delong Yin and Zhenbo Fan and Weihuang Wen and Shangbin Zhang},
  journal = {Clinical interventions in aging},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.2147/cia.s627357},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42928863},
  note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Analysis of Risk Factors and Development of a Predictive Model for 1-Year Mortality After Acute Hip Fracture Surgery in Patients Aged ≥80 Years: The Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Potential Predictor.
AU  - Shikai Li
AU  - Sheng Lu
AU  - Long Zhang
AU  - Delong Yin
AU  - Zhenbo Fan
AU  - Weihuang Wen
AU  - Shangbin Zhang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/21
JO  - Clinical interventions in aging
DO  - 10.2147/cia.s627357
UR  - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42928863
AB  - Objective  To investigate independent risk factors for 1-year mortality after acute hip-fracture surgery in patients aged ≥80 years and construct a risk-stratification nomogram to identify high-risk patients for intensified postoperative monitoring and preventive interventions.Methods  This retrospective study enrolled patients aged ≥80 years undergoing hip-fracture surgery (2017-2024). Candidate predictors included baseline, surgical, and laboratory variables. Independent predictors were selected via univariate-multivariate logistic and LASSO regression. Nomogram performance was assessed using ROC analysis, calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis (DCA).Results  In total, 463 patients were randomly split into 7:3 training-validation cohorts. Sex, age, comorbidity count, preoperative PNI, hemoglobin, creatinine, and postoperative NLR were independent predictors of 1-year all-cause mortality. The derived nomogram showed favorable discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit.Conclusion  This internally validated nomogram integrating PNI and other risk factors predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients aged ≥80 years with hip fracture and may support clinical risk-stratification decisions.
SN  - 1176-9092
SN  - 1178-1998
ER  -