Climate-sensitive, spatially explicit multi-objective thinning for stand-structure and living-biomass-carbon trade-offs
Abstract
Thinning can improve stand spatial structure but removes living biomass carbon, creating a trade-off that may vary among stand types and future climate pathways. We developed a spatially explicit, climate-sensitive multi-objective computational framework that integrates an individual-tree growth model, five neighborhood-based spatial metrics, species-specific biomass equations, and Monte Carlo optimization. The framework was applied to 15 mapped plots comprising secondary Betula platyphylla forests, Larix principis-rupprechtii–B. platyphylla mixed forests, and L. principis-rupprechtii plantations in northern China. Stand development was projected from 2025 to 2030 under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, and thinning was optimized under carbon-retention, balanced, and structure-priority objectives. Across stand types, the best-found thinning intensity increased from 5.0–12.0% under the carbon-retention objective to 32.1–41.0% under the balanced objective and 44.2–49.3% under the structure-priority objective. Mixed stands showed higher absolute spatial-structure improvement efficiency per unit of living biomass carbon removed than larch plantations. Under the balanced objective, SSP5-8.5 reduced best-found thinning intensity by 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points in secondary birch and larch stands, respectively, but increased it by 4.6 percentage points in mixed stands. Across the evaluated scenarios, variation among management objectives was greater than variation between climate pathways, while stand composition mediated the direction of climate effects. The framework provides spatially explicit, stand-specific decision support for evaluating thinning intensity and candidate harvest-tree locations while reconciling structural diversification with short-term living biomass carbon retention.
Related
- SPLATCHE2: a spatially explicit simulation framework for complex demography, genetic admixture and recombination
- Spatially Informed and Direction Sensitive Representation Learning for Spatial Transcriptomics
- AMMPER-2: A spatially explicit agent-based model of microbial radiobiology with redox dye simulation
- SEARAM – Seagrass Bed Rapid Assessment Method: A Spatially Explicit Approach to Assessing Seagrass Ecological Condition with Multiple Applications
- PhysiCelldFBA: Linking single-cell genome-scale metabolism to spatially explicit multicellular dynamics
BibTeX
@article{ma2026climatesensitive,
title = {{Climate-sensitive, spatially explicit multi-objective thinning for stand-structure and living-biomass-carbon trade-offs}},
author = {Pengcheng Ma and Zhifeng Guo and Zhirui Guo and Yue Pang and Zhidong Zhang},
journal = {Frontiers in Plant Science},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.3389/fpls.2026.1996132},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2026.1996132},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate-sensitive, spatially explicit multi-objective thinning for stand-structure and living-biomass-carbon trade-offs
AU - Pengcheng Ma
AU - Zhifeng Guo
AU - Zhirui Guo
AU - Yue Pang
AU - Zhidong Zhang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/04
JO - Frontiers in Plant Science
DO - 10.3389/fpls.2026.1996132
UR - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2026.1996132
AB - Thinning can improve stand spatial structure but removes living biomass carbon, creating a trade-off that may vary among stand types and future climate pathways. We developed a spatially explicit, climate-sensitive multi-objective computational framework that integrates an individual-tree growth model, five neighborhood-based spatial metrics, species-specific biomass equations, and Monte Carlo optimization. The framework was applied to 15 mapped plots comprising secondary Betula platyphylla forests, Larix principis-rupprechtii–B. platyphylla mixed forests, and L. principis-rupprechtii plantations in northern China. Stand development was projected from 2025 to 2030 under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, and thinning was optimized under carbon-retention, balanced, and structure-priority objectives. Across stand types, the best-found thinning intensity increased from 5.0–12.0% under the carbon-retention objective to 32.1–41.0% under the balanced objective and 44.2–49.3% under the structure-priority objective. Mixed stands showed higher absolute spatial-structure improvement efficiency per unit of living biomass carbon removed than larch plantations. Under the balanced objective, SSP5-8.5 reduced best-found thinning intensity by 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points in secondary birch and larch stands, respectively, but increased it by 4.6 percentage points in mixed stands. Across the evaluated scenarios, variation among management objectives was greater than variation between climate pathways, while stand composition mediated the direction of climate effects. The framework provides spatially explicit, stand-specific decision support for evaluating thinning intensity and candidate harvest-tree locations while reconciling structural diversification with short-term living biomass carbon retention.
SN - 1664-462X
ER -