Rethinking success and quality in ecological forecasting
Abstract
Ecological forecasts are increasingly required to inform science, policy and action in the face of rapid environmental and societal change. However, differences in how developers and end-users judge the value of ecological forecasts may limit their utility and uptake in real-world decision-making. Here, we use a participatory approach to propose a novel, holistic framework for the evaluation of ecological forecasts along two intersecting axes: quality and success. Quality is defined by the defensible development and predictive performance of ecological forecasts, while success captures the usefulness of a forecast in achieving its intended aim. We propose twelve shared criteria for evaluating quality and success spanning the forecasting process, set-up, and outputs while capturing forecast development, communication, performance, and operationality. Together, these criteria provide a common basis for the co-development of ecological forecasts, and better connect science with forecast-informed decision-making.
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BibTeX
@misc{boult2026rethinking,
title = {{Rethinking success and quality in ecological forecasting}},
author = {Victoria L Boult and Sandro Bertolino and Adam Devenish and Luke C Evans and Cara A. Gallagher and Valentin Journe and Gerbrand Koren and Joe Frederick Langley and Solène Marion and Maria Paniw and James Pearce-Higgins and Nigel Yoccoz and Emily Simmonds},
howpublished = {EcoEvoRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.32942/x24m6b},
url = {https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15818/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Rethinking success and quality in ecological forecasting
AU - Victoria L Boult
AU - Sandro Bertolino
AU - Adam Devenish
AU - Luke C Evans
AU - Cara A. Gallagher
AU - Valentin Journe
AU - Gerbrand Koren
AU - Joe Frederick Langley
AU - Solène Marion
AU - Maria Paniw
AU - James Pearce-Higgins
AU - Nigel Yoccoz
AU - Emily Simmonds
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
PB - EcoEvoRxiv
DO - 10.32942/x24m6b
UR - https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15818/
AB - Ecological forecasts are increasingly required to inform science, policy and action in the face of rapid environmental and societal change. However, differences in how developers and end-users judge the value of ecological forecasts may limit their utility and uptake in real-world decision-making. Here, we use a participatory approach to propose a novel, holistic framework for the evaluation of ecological forecasts along two intersecting axes: quality and success. Quality is defined by the defensible development and predictive performance of ecological forecasts, while success captures the usefulness of a forecast in achieving its intended aim. We propose twelve shared criteria for evaluating quality and success spanning the forecasting process, set-up, and outputs while capturing forecast development, communication, performance, and operationality. Together, these criteria provide a common basis for the co-development of ecological forecasts, and better connect science with forecast-informed decision-making.
ER -