A Conservation Roadmap for the Anticipated Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) Metapopulation in Central Europe-Modelling Effective Deme Sizes and Connectivity.
7 affiliations
- 1Conservation Genetics Group & Centre for Wildlife Genetics Senckenberg Nature Research, Research Station Gelnhausen Gelnhausen Germany.
- 2Foundation KORA Ittigen Switzerland.
- 3Czech Academy of Sciences Institute of Vertebrate Biology Brno Czech Republic.
- 4Department of Zoology, Fisheries and Hydrobiology, Faculty of AgriSciences Mendel University in Brno Brno Czech Republic.
- 5Biotechnical Faculty University of Ljubljana Ljubljana Slovenia.
- 6DivjaLabs Ltd. Ljubljana Slovenia.
- 7LOEWE Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics (LOEWE-TBG) Frankfurt am Main Germany.
Abstract
Reintroducing wildlife into anthropogenic landscapes is challenging, particularly for wide-ranging species. Extensive habitat fragmentation and limited carrying capacities pose genuine risks of population isolation and subsequent genetic erosion. A current example includes the fragmented populations of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx carpathicus) in Central Europe, where isolated demes currently rely on ex situ sourced or wild-caught releases to buffer inbreeding accumulation over short timescales. Due to management trade-offs, however, such assisted migration can only function as a transitional remedy, whereas long-term stability hinges on inherent growth rates and vital genetic exchange in a metapopulation framework. We here use analytic modelling to examine potential scenarios and requirements for a vital metapopulation of the Eurasian lynx in Central Europe. To inform conservation management in the early stages of formation, we considered scenarios that describe the current and near-future status of the metapopulation, as well as anticipated-but not yet established-scenarios that would ensure long-term genetic stability. We find that current and near-future effective sizes and migration rates among demes are far from sufficient to reach long-term stability (Nemeta > 500), even given hundreds of generations. Model-derived management targets suggest that robust configurations require significant increases in deme sizes (> 150%), diversity (Ne/Nc > 0.4), and average pairwise migration rates (> 10%), in order to advance towards stable metapopulation dynamics. This, however, entails potential distribution trade-offs from limited capacities in ex situ and/or wild population sourcing. Here, our model outcomes caution against diverting resources towards new introductions, and highlight the need for ongoing reinforcement of existing demes on the one hand, and the mitigation of dispersal barriers and threats on the other hand.
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BibTeX
@article{rolshausen2026conservation,
title = {{A Conservation Roadmap for the Anticipated Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) Metapopulation in Central Europe-Modelling Effective Deme Sizes and Connectivity.}},
author = {Gregor Rolshausen and Christine Breitenmoser and Jarmila Krojerová-Prokešová and Tomaž Skrbinšek and Carsten Nowak},
journal = {Evolutionary applications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1111/eva.70340},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42927248},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A Conservation Roadmap for the Anticipated Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) Metapopulation in Central Europe-Modelling Effective Deme Sizes and Connectivity.
AU - Gregor Rolshausen
AU - Christine Breitenmoser
AU - Jarmila Krojerová-Prokešová
AU - Tomaž Skrbinšek
AU - Carsten Nowak
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/24
JO - Evolutionary applications
DO - 10.1111/eva.70340
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42927248
AB - Reintroducing wildlife into anthropogenic landscapes is challenging, particularly for wide-ranging species. Extensive habitat fragmentation and limited carrying capacities pose genuine risks of population isolation and subsequent genetic erosion. A current example includes the fragmented populations of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx carpathicus) in Central Europe, where isolated demes currently rely on ex situ sourced or wild-caught releases to buffer inbreeding accumulation over short timescales. Due to management trade-offs, however, such assisted migration can only function as a transitional remedy, whereas long-term stability hinges on inherent growth rates and vital genetic exchange in a metapopulation framework. We here use analytic modelling to examine potential scenarios and requirements for a vital metapopulation of the Eurasian lynx in Central Europe. To inform conservation management in the early stages of formation, we considered scenarios that describe the current and near-future status of the metapopulation, as well as anticipated-but not yet established-scenarios that would ensure long-term genetic stability. We find that current and near-future effective sizes and migration rates among demes are far from sufficient to reach long-term stability (Nemeta > 500), even given hundreds of generations. Model-derived management targets suggest that robust configurations require significant increases in deme sizes (> 150%), diversity (Ne/Nc > 0.4), and average pairwise migration rates (> 10%), in order to advance towards stable metapopulation dynamics. This, however, entails potential distribution trade-offs from limited capacities in ex situ and/or wild population sourcing. Here, our model outcomes caution against diverting resources towards new introductions, and highlight the need for ongoing reinforcement of existing demes on the one hand, and the mitigation of dispersal barriers and threats on the other hand.
SN - 1752-4571
ER -