Projected intensification of soil salinization in global drylands under future aridity increase
Abstract
Soil salinization threatens agricultural production, water management, and ecosystem health. Yet, how increasing aridity will reshape 21st-century soil salinity patterns across drylands, particularly in croplands, remains unclear. Here, we compile a relatively comprehensive global soil salinity dataset from the past two decades, projecting future dryland soil salinity dynamics using climate-driven machine learning models with multiple covariates, including dynamic dryland extent and human influences. Our results show an 8% expansion of global drylands saline soils under increasing aridity by 2100 (SSP5-8.5) relative to 2004–2023. Southwestern US, Mexico, southern Europe, central South America, eastern and southern Africa are highest-risk hotspots. We further show dryland croplands face serious salinization, especially irrigated systems, where half of these newly salinized areas project more than 4.9% (maize), 17.2% (dryland rice), 3.3% (sorghum), and 21.2% (wheat) potential production losses. Our findings inform long-term adaptation strategies to mitigate emerging salinization risks and sustain water and food security.
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BibTeX
@article{yu2026projected,
title = {{Projected intensification of soil salinization in global drylands under future aridity increase}},
author = {Dietian Yu and Nan Wang and Amirhossein Hassani and Saverio Perri and Yi Peng and Songchao Chen and Jie Peng and Yulin Shangguan and Chen Zhang and Jinwei Dong and Ganlin Zhang and Zhou Shi},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-78622-6},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78622-6},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Projected intensification of soil salinization in global drylands under future aridity increase
AU - Dietian Yu
AU - Nan Wang
AU - Amirhossein Hassani
AU - Saverio Perri
AU - Yi Peng
AU - Songchao Chen
AU - Jie Peng
AU - Yulin Shangguan
AU - Chen Zhang
AU - Jinwei Dong
AU - Ganlin Zhang
AU - Zhou Shi
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/19
JO - Nature Communications
DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-78622-6
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-78622-6
AB - Soil salinization threatens agricultural production, water management, and ecosystem health. Yet, how increasing aridity will reshape 21st-century soil salinity patterns across drylands, particularly in croplands, remains unclear. Here, we compile a relatively comprehensive global soil salinity dataset from the past two decades, projecting future dryland soil salinity dynamics using climate-driven machine learning models with multiple covariates, including dynamic dryland extent and human influences. Our results show an 8% expansion of global drylands saline soils under increasing aridity by 2100 (SSP5-8.5) relative to 2004–2023. Southwestern US, Mexico, southern Europe, central South America, eastern and southern Africa are highest-risk hotspots. We further show dryland croplands face serious salinization, especially irrigated systems, where half of these newly salinized areas project more than 4.9% (maize), 17.2% (dryland rice), 3.3% (sorghum), and 21.2% (wheat) potential production losses. Our findings inform long-term adaptation strategies to mitigate emerging salinization risks and sustain water and food security.
SN - 2041-1723
ER -