High-resolution paleobiome reconstructions highlight ecological and historical dynamics underpinning global terrestrial vertebrate diversity
4 affiliations
- 1Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- 2School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
- 3Cabot Institute for the Environment, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
- 4Dynamic Macroecology, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Abstract
Past climate change has repeatedly reshaped Earth’s biomes, yet how their expansion and contraction influence biodiversity patterns through time remains unclear. Competing hypotheses propose that either historical biome area has a strong influence on diversity, or that biodiversity responds rapidly to environmental change, such that present-day biome area and energy are sufficient to explain diversity patterns. Progress in testing these ideas has been limited by sparse and inconsistent proxy data and the coarse resolution of existing paleoclimate models. Here, we reconstructed global biome histories for the Cenozoic (66–0 Ma) by downscaling five different paleoclimate simulations. Estimates of change in biome area through time were generally consistent among alternative climate models and with the empirical proxy record. Accounting for variation among models, we found that present-day area and energy were consistently better predictors of vertebrate diversity than historical measures. These findings suggest biodiversity tracks the ecological limits set by shifting biomes, leaving sparse legacy of past dynamics. Our results highlight the importance of integrating multiple paleoclimate reconstructions when assessing the historical drivers of biodiversity.
How past biome dynamics shape present-day biodiversity is unclear. This study uses reconstructed paleobiomes over the past 66 million years to show that current biome properties predict diversity better than historical biomes, suggesting that biodiversity rapidly tracks changing ecological limits.
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BibTeX
@article{skeels2026highresolution,
title = {{High-resolution paleobiome reconstructions highlight ecological and historical dynamics underpinning global terrestrial vertebrate diversity}},
author = {Alexander Skeels and Julian Rogger and Marcel Cardillo and Alexander Farnsworth and Daniel J. Lunt and Dirk Nikolaus Karger},
journal = {PLOS Biology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - High-resolution paleobiome reconstructions highlight ecological and historical dynamics underpinning global terrestrial vertebrate diversity
AU - Alexander Skeels
AU - Julian Rogger
AU - Marcel Cardillo
AU - Alexander Farnsworth
AU - Daniel J. Lunt
AU - Dirk Nikolaus Karger
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - PLOS Biology
DO - 10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3004077
AB - Past climate change has repeatedly reshaped Earth’s biomes, yet how their expansion and contraction influence biodiversity patterns through time remains unclear. Competing hypotheses propose that either historical biome area has a strong influence on diversity, or that biodiversity responds rapidly to environmental change, such that present-day biome area and energy are sufficient to explain diversity patterns. Progress in testing these ideas has been limited by sparse and inconsistent proxy data and the coarse resolution of existing paleoclimate models. Here, we reconstructed global biome histories for the Cenozoic (66–0 Ma) by downscaling five different paleoclimate simulations. Estimates of change in biome area through time were generally consistent among alternative climate models and with the empirical proxy record. Accounting for variation among models, we found that present-day area and energy were consistently better predictors of vertebrate diversity than historical measures. These findings suggest biodiversity tracks the ecological limits set by shifting biomes, leaving sparse legacy of past dynamics. Our results highlight the importance of integrating multiple paleoclimate reconstructions when assessing the historical drivers of biodiversity. How past biome dynamics shape present-day biodiversity is unclear. This study uses reconstructed paleobiomes over the past 66 million years to show that current biome properties predict diversity better than historical biomes, suggesting that biodiversity rapidly tracks changing ecological limits.
SN - 1545-7885
SN - 1544-9173
ER -