Patterns, drivers, and trends of urban cooling demand across global cities
8 affiliations
- 1Artificial Intelligence and Human-Building Interaction Lab, Department of Architecture and Regional Planning, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India
- 2Artificial Intelligence and Human-Building Interaction Lab, Department of Architecture and Regional Planning, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India. [email protected]
- 3Department of Geography, Lalbaba College, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
- 4Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- 5School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
- 6Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
- 7Fariborz Maseeh Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA
- 8School of Built Environment, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Abstract
Urban Cooling Demand (UCD) in cities is shaped by patterns of urban form, including engineered three-dimensional characteristics of building and transport infrastructure, local to large-scale climate dynamics and demographic elements. While impacts of lateral expansion on UCD have been widely assessed for urban environments, the specific impact of volumetric urbanization, which refers to the simultaneous horizontal and vertical expansion of cities, remains largely unexplored. We present a set of city-scale indicators of urbanization by analysing changes in both horizontal and vertical urban extents, along with demographic factors such as population density which influence on historical patterns and trends of UCD. We estimated these indicators and UCDs across 88 Indian cities and 52 global cities from 2002–2023, clustering cities into four typologies: (Type I) large, irregular cities, (Type II) medium-sized cities, (Type III) smaller, irregular cities, and (Type IV) smaller, compact cities. While regional and coastal–inland climate-based classifications were examined, the typology framework provided a more intricate explanation of UCD variability, capturing the nonlinear interactions between urban climate and city structure. Type I cities show the sharpest increase in UCD due to extensive high-rise growth and sprawling urban canyons that trap heat, while Type II cities follow a similar but less pronounced trend. In contrast, Type III and IV cities exhibit moderate UCD trends, as their compact urban forms promote mutual shading and lower cooling demand. We also found that volumetric urbanization, particularly vertical development and infilling driven densification, is the primary driver of rising UCD and the second most important factor in predicting cross-city UCD patterns, after local climate. Our results highlight the role of volumetric urbanization in shaping cooling demand and the need for profile-specific, climate-responsive planning. As cities worldwide shift toward volumetric densification, understanding these dynamics is vital for mitigating urban heat and optimizing cooling energy in a warming climate.
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BibTeX
@article{mondal2026patterns,
title = {{Patterns, drivers, and trends of urban cooling demand across global cities}},
author = {Nilabhra Mondal and Prashant Anand and Ansar Khan and Matei Georgescu and Dev Niyogi and M. Santamouris},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
month = jun,
doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-74157-y},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74157-y},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Patterns, drivers, and trends of urban cooling demand across global cities
AU - Nilabhra Mondal
AU - Prashant Anand
AU - Ansar Khan
AU - Matei Georgescu
AU - Dev Niyogi
AU - M. Santamouris
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/06/22
JO - Nature Communications
DO - 10.1038/s41467-026-74157-y
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-74157-y
AB - Urban Cooling Demand (UCD) in cities is shaped by patterns of urban form, including engineered three-dimensional characteristics of building and transport infrastructure, local to large-scale climate dynamics and demographic elements. While impacts of lateral expansion on UCD have been widely assessed for urban environments, the specific impact of volumetric urbanization, which refers to the simultaneous horizontal and vertical expansion of cities, remains largely unexplored. We present a set of city-scale indicators of urbanization by analysing changes in both horizontal and vertical urban extents, along with demographic factors such as population density which influence on historical patterns and trends of UCD. We estimated these indicators and UCDs across 88 Indian cities and 52 global cities from 2002–2023, clustering cities into four typologies: (Type I) large, irregular cities, (Type II) medium-sized cities, (Type III) smaller, irregular cities, and (Type IV) smaller, compact cities. While regional and coastal–inland climate-based classifications were examined, the typology framework provided a more intricate explanation of UCD variability, capturing the nonlinear interactions between urban climate and city structure. Type I cities show the sharpest increase in UCD due to extensive high-rise growth and sprawling urban canyons that trap heat, while Type II cities follow a similar but less pronounced trend. In contrast, Type III and IV cities exhibit moderate UCD trends, as their compact urban forms promote mutual shading and lower cooling demand. We also found that volumetric urbanization, particularly vertical development and infilling driven densification, is the primary driver of rising UCD and the second most important factor in predicting cross-city UCD patterns, after local climate. Our results highlight the role of volumetric urbanization in shaping cooling demand and the need for profile-specific, climate-responsive planning. As cities worldwide shift toward volumetric densification, understanding these dynamics is vital for mitigating urban heat and optimizing cooling energy in a warming climate.
SN - 2041-1723
ER -