Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding
- 1Aberystwyth University (Aberystwyth, United Kingdom)
Abstract
Ice-marginal lakes are an increasingly common feature of glacierised landscapes, and their sudden drainage beneath glaciers (a jökulhlaup) can threaten downstream communities and infrastructure. Numerous efforts to model jökulhlaups have been made, however, because these models are typically 1D representations of a single channel connected to a lake, they cannot simulate lateral jökulhlaup propagation through the subglacial system. Here, to simulate jökulhlaups within a 2D subglacial drainage system, we use a fully coupled model of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding with a time-evolving ice-marginal lake located at its boundary. In experiments on a synthetic domain, the model produces stable, recurrent jökulhlaup cycles, and glacier acceleration during flood onset followed by abrupt slowdown at peak flood discharge. Sensitivity testing highlights the efficiency of the subglacial hydrology system as a key control on flood timing, peak discharge, and the basal sliding response. We also explore our model's ability to represent an observed record of jökulhlaups by applying it to Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. The model successfully reproduces variability over a 17-year period, but underpredicts peak flood discharges, likely because its formulation omits ice uplift and lake temperature variability. These results establish the coupling of a lake to 2D subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics as a viable approach for multi-decadal jökulhlaup simulation.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{hepburn2026simulating,
title = {{Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding}},
author = {Adam J. Hepburn and Sammie Buzzard and Andrew J. Sole and Stephen J. Livingstone and Felix Ng and Mathieu Morlighem and Elizabeth A. Bagshaw and Caroline Clason and Lisa Craw and Christine F. Dow and Samuel Doyle and Jonathan Hawkins and Matthew Peacey and Robert Storrar},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026},
url = {https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/5675/2026/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Simulating jökulhlaups from an ice-marginal lake within a 2D model of subglacial drainage and basal sliding
AU - Adam J. Hepburn
AU - Sammie Buzzard
AU - Andrew J. Sole
AU - Stephen J. Livingstone
AU - Felix Ng
AU - Mathieu Morlighem
AU - Elizabeth A. Bagshaw
AU - Caroline Clason
AU - Lisa Craw
AU - Christine F. Dow
AU - Samuel Doyle
AU - Jonathan Hawkins
AU - Matthew Peacey
AU - Robert Storrar
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/06
JO - The Cryosphere
DO - 10.5194/tc-20-5675-2026
UR - https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/20/5675/2026/
AB - Ice-marginal lakes are an increasingly common feature of glacierised landscapes, and their sudden drainage beneath glaciers (a jökulhlaup) can threaten downstream communities and infrastructure. Numerous efforts to model jökulhlaups have been made, however, because these models are typically 1D representations of a single channel connected to a lake, they cannot simulate lateral jökulhlaup propagation through the subglacial system. Here, to simulate jökulhlaups within a 2D subglacial drainage system, we use a fully coupled model of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding with a time-evolving ice-marginal lake located at its boundary. In experiments on a synthetic domain, the model produces stable, recurrent jökulhlaup cycles, and glacier acceleration during flood onset followed by abrupt slowdown at peak flood discharge. Sensitivity testing highlights the efficiency of the subglacial hydrology system as a key control on flood timing, peak discharge, and the basal sliding response. We also explore our model's ability to represent an observed record of jökulhlaups by applying it to Isunnguata Sermia, West Greenland. The model successfully reproduces variability over a 17-year period, but underpredicts peak flood discharges, likely because its formulation omits ice uplift and lake temperature variability. These results establish the coupling of a lake to 2D subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics as a viable approach for multi-decadal jökulhlaup simulation.
SN - 1994-0424
ER -