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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NCScience Advances

Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield

  • Yiwei Jian1,2
  • Xuhui Wang2
  • Jonas Jägermeyr3,4,5
  • Philippe Ciais6
  • Christoph Müller5
  • Jakob Zscheischler A1,7
  • Tao Li8
  • Kun Cheng9
  • Pengfu Hou10
  • Jianliang Huang11
  • Shan Huang12
  • Yu Jiang13
5 more authors
  • Bin Wang14
  • Zhenwei Song15
  • Zuolin Zhang16
  • Peng Zhu17
  • Feng Zhou2,18
18 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Compound Environmental Risks, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
  2. 2Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Sciences, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
  3. 3Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
  4. 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY, USA
  5. 5Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  6. 6Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  7. 7Department of Hydro Sciences, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany
  8. 8International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, Philippines
  9. 9College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
  10. 10Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanjing, China
  11. 11Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China
  12. 12Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology, Ecology and Genetic Breeding, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang, China
  13. 13Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production/Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, College of Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China
  14. 14Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, China
  15. 15Institute of Crop Sciences, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, China
  16. 16Hubei Key Laboratory of Food Crop Germplasm and Genetic Improvement, Institute of Food Crops, Hubei Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Wuhan, China
  17. 17Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
  18. 18State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Processes in Watershed, College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
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Abstract

Complex and spatially varying warming impacts on rice yield hinder climate change impact assessments on food security. To address this issue, we compiled a global dataset of field-warming experiments ( n = 214) and analyzed stage-specific crop responses to temperature variations. Results show that exposures to high (30° to 35°C) and extreme high (>35°C) temperatures are the dominant drivers of warming-induced rice yield losses, primarily through harvest index reductions. One additional exposure day above 30°C during the reproductive stage reduces rice yields by 1.1 to 1.8%. In contrast, current global gridded crop models underestimate this sensitivity, simulating only 0.1 to 1.3% yield loss per exposure day. After adjusting the model biases, we estimate that global rice yield losses decrease by 8.1% under 1°C of global warming, approximately twice the unadjusted estimates, with South and Southeast Asia being the most vulnerable regions. Our results highlight the critical role of high-temperature exposure in shaping warming impacts on rice yield.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{jian2026vulnerability,
  title = {{Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield}},
  author = {Yiwei Jian and Xuhui Wang and Jonas Jägermeyr and Philippe Ciais and Christoph Müller and Jakob Zscheischler A and Tao Li and Kun Cheng and Pengfu Hou and Jianliang Huang and Shan Huang and Yu Jiang and Bin Wang and Zhenwei Song and Zuolin Zhang and Peng Zhu and Feng Zhou},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aed9226},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed9226},
  note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Vulnerability to high temperature shapes global warming impacts on rice yield
AU  - Yiwei Jian
AU  - Xuhui Wang
AU  - Jonas Jägermeyr
AU  - Philippe Ciais
AU  - Christoph Müller
AU  - Jakob Zscheischler A
AU  - Tao Li
AU  - Kun Cheng
AU  - Pengfu Hou
AU  - Jianliang Huang
AU  - Shan Huang
AU  - Yu Jiang
AU  - Bin Wang
AU  - Zhenwei Song
AU  - Zuolin Zhang
AU  - Peng Zhu
AU  - Feng Zhou
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/29
JO  - Science Advances
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aed9226
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aed9226
AB  - Complex and spatially varying warming impacts on rice yield hinder climate change impact assessments on food security. To address this issue, we compiled a global dataset of field-warming experiments ( n = 214) and analyzed stage-specific crop responses to temperature variations. Results show that exposures to high (30° to 35°C) and extreme high (>35°C) temperatures are the dominant drivers of warming-induced rice yield losses, primarily through harvest index reductions. One additional exposure day above 30°C during the reproductive stage reduces rice yields by 1.1 to 1.8%. In contrast, current global gridded crop models underestimate this sensitivity, simulating only 0.1 to 1.3% yield loss per exposure day. After adjusting the model biases, we estimate that global rice yield losses decrease by 8.1% under 1°C of global warming, approximately twice the unadjusted estimates, with South and Southeast Asia being the most vulnerable regions. Our results highlight the critical role of high-temperature exposure in shaping warming impacts on rice yield.
SN  - 2375-2548
ER  -