A Quiet Night in the Millihertz Sky? LISA Forecasts from LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Populations
Abstract
The high-mass black hole population inferred from ground-based observations can substantially affect the number of binaries detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We use population constraints based on data from the latest LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-5.0), as well as constraints from the O3 search for intermediate-mass black hole binaries, to forecast the number and masses of binary black holes detectable by LISA. Using the released GWTC-5.0 population posterior, we obtain 6.6+5.5−2.2 expected detections with signal-to-noise ratio >8 in 4 years (median and 90% credible interval). The alternative population models we consider use a broken power law with two or three Gaussian peaks for either the primary-mass distribution or a common mass distribution for both black holes. For the three-peak model with the common mass distribution, extrapolating from $300$ to 1000M⊙ roughly doubles the median expected number of LISA detections to ∼14. The upper end of its 90% credible interval rises from tens to thousands of expected detections, although approximations may limit the reliability of the most extreme counts. For the reference GWTC-5.0 population, 39+22−11% of the binaries detectable by LISA merge during the mission or within $10$ years after its end and are potential multiband sources. Essentially all of these mergers would be detectable by a reference Cosmic Explorer configuration if it is operating at merger. Ground-based measurements of the high-mass population can therefore inform both LISA forecasts and the prospects for observing the same binaries through inspiral and merger.
Related
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- Virgo Filaments VIII: Characterizing the Structural Parameters of Virgo Galaxies with Machine Learning to Probe Environmental Quenching
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BibTeX
@misc{hernandez2026quiet,
title = {{A Quiet Night in the Millihertz Sky? LISA Forecasts from LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Populations}},
author = {Ignacio Magaña Hernandez and Antonella Palmese},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.37617},
eprint = {2610.37617},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.37617},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A Quiet Night in the Millihertz Sky? LISA Forecasts from LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Populations
AU - Ignacio Magaña Hernandez
AU - Antonella Palmese
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.37617
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.37617
AB - The high-mass black hole population inferred from ground-based observations can substantially affect the number of binaries detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). We use population constraints based on data from the latest LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-5.0), as well as constraints from the O3 search for intermediate-mass black hole binaries, to forecast the number and masses of binary black holes detectable by LISA. Using the released GWTC-5.0 population posterior, we obtain 6.6^+5.5_−2.2 expected detections with signal-to-noise ratio >8 in 4 years (median and 90% credible interval). The alternative population models we consider use a broken power law with two or three Gaussian peaks for either the primary-mass distribution or a common mass distribution for both black holes. For the three-peak model with the common mass distribution, extrapolating from $300$ to 1000M_⊙ roughly doubles the median expected number of LISA detections to ∼14. The upper end of its 90% credible interval rises from tens to thousands of expected detections, although approximations may limit the reliability of the most extreme counts. For the reference GWTC-5.0 population, 39^+22_−11% of the binaries detectable by LISA merge during the mission or within $10$ years after its end and are potential multiband sources. Essentially all of these mergers would be detectable by a reference Cosmic Explorer configuration if it is operating at merger. Ground-based measurements of the high-mass population can therefore inform both LISA forecasts and the prospects for observing the same binaries through inspiral and merger.
ER -