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PreprintCC BY 4.0arXiv

Bridging Dependence: From Opinion Leader Influence to Standard Correlation Measures

  • Jonas Karge
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

As a cornerstone result of social choice and democracy the- ory, the Condorcet Jury Theorem (CJT) provides probabilistic guaran- tees for the correctness of majority decisions under idealized conditions, in particular assuming that voters are statistically independent. When generalizing the original CJT, a standard approach in the literature to model dependence introduces an external opinion leader (OL) whose in- fluence affects individual voting behavior. In this paper, we take the first steps toward a unified framework for modeling dependence by translat- ing the OL model into standard correlation measures, namely covariance and correlation coefficient. These translations build conceptual bridges between different dependence models in the voting literature and facili- tate the application of existing theoretical results across frameworks.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{karge2026bridging,
  title = {{Bridging Dependence: From Opinion Leader Influence to Standard Correlation Measures}},
  author = {Jonas Karge},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.00010},
  eprint = {2609.00010},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00010},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Bridging Dependence: From Opinion Leader Influence to Standard Correlation Measures
AU  - Jonas Karge
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/01
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.00010
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00010
AB  - As a cornerstone result of social choice and democracy the- ory, the Condorcet Jury Theorem (CJT) provides probabilistic guaran- tees for the correctness of majority decisions under idealized conditions, in particular assuming that voters are statistically independent. When generalizing the original CJT, a standard approach in the literature to model dependence introduces an external opinion leader (OL) whose in- fluence affects individual voting behavior. In this paper, we take the first steps toward a unified framework for modeling dependence by translat- ing the OL model into standard correlation measures, namely covariance and correlation coefficient. These translations build conceptual bridges between different dependence models in the voting literature and facili- tate the application of existing theoretical results across frameworks.
ER  -