Future trends of desalination and wastewater treatment accounting for risks of maladaptation
- 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
- 2Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Abstract
The intensifying effects of climate change on global water scarcity require ensuring reliable, equitable, and sustainable water supply, with novel technologies becoming increasingly central to adaptation. In this study, we develop projections of wastewater treatment and desalination capacities and analyze their associated energy demand and CO2 emissions. While technologically mature and rapidly expanding, their future development remains underexamined as a risk of maladaptation that stems from their high energy demand and potential emissions footprint. We find that, compared to the present day, wastewater treatment and desalination capacities could double and triple, respectively, by 2050, followed by scenario-dependent multi-fold increases in energy demand and emissions. While the emissions footprint is non-negligible, it is only about a half of the projected increases in key energy-intensive adaptation options such as air conditioning. We find that water-stressed regions like Africa and South Asia, currently minor contributors to global wastewater treatment and desalination capacity, are projected to become largest producers of novel water in the second half of the century across the tested scenarios. Wastewater treatment and desalination emerge from this analysis as indispensable yet imperfect adaptation options, whose future contributions crucially depend on how their expansion is embedded in broader water and energy systems.
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BibTeX
@article{andrijevic2026future,
title = {{Future trends of desalination and wastewater treatment accounting for risks of maladaptation}},
author = {Marina Andrijevic and Adriano Vinca and Michele Magni and Edward R. Jones and Michelle T. H. van Vliet and Michaela Werning and Edward Byers},
journal = {Npj Clean Water},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1038/s41545-026-00605-3},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-026-00605-3},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Future trends of desalination and wastewater treatment accounting for risks of maladaptation
AU - Marina Andrijevic
AU - Adriano Vinca
AU - Michele Magni
AU - Edward R. Jones
AU - Michelle T. H. van Vliet
AU - Michaela Werning
AU - Edward Byers
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/01
JO - Npj Clean Water
DO - 10.1038/s41545-026-00605-3
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41545-026-00605-3
AB - The intensifying effects of climate change on global water scarcity require ensuring reliable, equitable, and sustainable water supply, with novel technologies becoming increasingly central to adaptation. In this study, we develop projections of wastewater treatment and desalination capacities and analyze their associated energy demand and CO2 emissions. While technologically mature and rapidly expanding, their future development remains underexamined as a risk of maladaptation that stems from their high energy demand and potential emissions footprint. We find that, compared to the present day, wastewater treatment and desalination capacities could double and triple, respectively, by 2050, followed by scenario-dependent multi-fold increases in energy demand and emissions. While the emissions footprint is non-negligible, it is only about a half of the projected increases in key energy-intensive adaptation options such as air conditioning. We find that water-stressed regions like Africa and South Asia, currently minor contributors to global wastewater treatment and desalination capacity, are projected to become largest producers of novel water in the second half of the century across the tested scenarios. Wastewater treatment and desalination emerge from this analysis as indispensable yet imperfect adaptation options, whose future contributions crucially depend on how their expansion is embedded in broader water and energy systems.
SN - 2059-7037
ER -