Modelling and Forecasting tool in Greece: Pilot Study within the EUVABECO project
Abstract
Background: Within the European Vaccination Beyond COVID-19 (EUVABECO) project, this study reports from the pilot implementation of a Modelling and Forecasting tool in Greece. The tool aims to predict and evaluate the impact of public health interventions on infectious disease dynamics.
Methods: An epidemiological model previously developed for Germany was adapted to the Greek context, using publicly available data on infections, hospitalizations, fatalities, variants of concern (Alpha, Delta, Omicron sublineages), vaccination uptake, and age- and sex-specific distributions Hospital treatment durations were estimated from a cohort of COVID-19 patients treated at a tertiary hospital in Crete (2020–2023).
Results: The model adequately reproduced epidemiological trends in Greece from February 2020 to July 2022, encompassing vaccination roll-out and successive variant waves Analysis of 2,081 hospitalized patients showed a mean length of stay of 7.2 days in general wards and 27.3 days in intensive care units (ICU), with longer durations among fatal cases (11.6 and 28.9 days). Compared with Germany, general ward stays were shorter (7.2 vs 11.5 days), whereas ICU stays for fatal cases were longer (28.9 vs 16.5 days). After incorporating such differences, model fit improved substantially. While case trajectories were comparable between Greece and Germany, Greece exhibited higher ICU occupancy and mortality from 2021 onward, reflecting differences in testing intensity and case ascertainment. The model was implemented as an interactive, web-based simulation platform enabling scenario analyses of vaccination strategies, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and variant emergence.
Conclusions: This pilot demonstrates the utility of the modelling tool for supporting evidence-informed decision-making in vaccination policies and public health interventions. Its flexibility and real-time adaptability make it a valuable resource for preparedness and response to future epidemics.
Key messages: • A modelling and forecasting tool was adapted and implemented for Greece context within a pilot study.
• The tool enables scenario analysis of infectious disease dynamics and can support future preparedness and response planning.
Related
- Probability and statistics in Greece
- A cut-and-project set which is not bi-Lipschitz equivalent to a lattice
- Density and holes of the visible points in certain cut-and-project sets
- Simultaneous visibility in cut-and-project sets
- A Taxometric Analysis of the Three-Item UCLA Loneliness Scale in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project
BibTeX
@article{tsoulchai2026modelling,
title = {{Modelling and Forecasting tool in Greece: Pilot Study within the EUVABECO project}},
author = {G Tsoulchai and D Selzer and C Dings and M Anastasaki and S Papadakis and E Petelos and NL Bragazzi and T Lehr and F Kaag and C Lionis},
journal = {The European Journal of Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.869},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.869},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Modelling and Forecasting tool in Greece: Pilot Study within the EUVABECO project
AU - G Tsoulchai
AU - D Selzer
AU - C Dings
AU - M Anastasaki
AU - S Papadakis
AU - E Petelos
AU - NL Bragazzi
AU - T Lehr
AU - F Kaag
AU - C Lionis
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - The European Journal of Public Health
DO - 10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.869
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.869
AB - Background: Within the European Vaccination Beyond COVID-19 (EUVABECO) project, this study reports from the pilot implementation of a Modelling and Forecasting tool in Greece. The tool aims to predict and evaluate the impact of public health interventions on infectious disease dynamics. Methods: An epidemiological model previously developed for Germany was adapted to the Greek context, using publicly available data on infections, hospitalizations, fatalities, variants of concern (Alpha, Delta, Omicron sublineages), vaccination uptake, and age- and sex-specific distributions Hospital treatment durations were estimated from a cohort of COVID-19 patients treated at a tertiary hospital in Crete (2020–2023). Results: The model adequately reproduced epidemiological trends in Greece from February 2020 to July 2022, encompassing vaccination roll-out and successive variant waves Analysis of 2,081 hospitalized patients showed a mean length of stay of 7.2 days in general wards and 27.3 days in intensive care units (ICU), with longer durations among fatal cases (11.6 and 28.9 days). Compared with Germany, general ward stays were shorter (7.2 vs 11.5 days), whereas ICU stays for fatal cases were longer (28.9 vs 16.5 days). After incorporating such differences, model fit improved substantially. While case trajectories were comparable between Greece and Germany, Greece exhibited higher ICU occupancy and mortality from 2021 onward, reflecting differences in testing intensity and case ascertainment. The model was implemented as an interactive, web-based simulation platform enabling scenario analyses of vaccination strategies, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and variant emergence. Conclusions: This pilot demonstrates the utility of the modelling tool for supporting evidence-informed decision-making in vaccination policies and public health interventions. Its flexibility and real-time adaptability make it a valuable resource for preparedness and response to future epidemics. Key messages: • A modelling and forecasting tool was adapted and implemented for Greece context within a pilot study. • The tool enables scenario analysis of infectious disease dynamics and can support future preparedness and response planning.
SN - 1101-1262
SN - 1464-360X
ER -