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Peer-reviewedCC BYWeather and Climate Dynamics

The October 2024 extreme precipitation event over Valencia: storyline attribution of the synoptic-scale thermodynamic drivers

  • Diego Alvaro Campos1,2
  • Katherine Grayson1
  • Ramiro I. Saurral1,3,4,5
  • Sebastian Beyer6
  • Amal John6
  • Matias Ezequiel Olmo1
  • Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes1,7
7 affiliations
  1. 1Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
  2. 2Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
  3. 3CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina
  4. 4CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
  5. 5Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  6. 6Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Bremerhaven, Germany
  7. 7Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain
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Abstract

In late October 2024, the western Mediterranean (WMed) region experienced an extreme precipitation event (EPE) centred over Valencia, southeastern Spain, associated with a quasi-stationary cut-off low (COL), producing record rainfall, flash floods, and severe societal impacts. The COL generated an atmospheric-river-like moisture plume from northwestern Africa, while additional moisture originated from the warm Mediterranean Sea. Interaction with regional orography created a highly unstable environment, favouring deep convection and intense local rainfall. To assess the influence of anthropogenic climate change, we analyse high-resolution (∼9 km) storyline simulations from the European Union’s Destination Earth initiative, using the coupled IFS-FESOM model spectrally nudged with ERA5. Two climate scenarios are compared: Factual (present-day) and Counterfactual (~1950), isolating thermodynamic responses while keeping large-scale circulation fixed. Long-term IFS-FESOM and ERA5 datasets provide a climatological reference for event extremeness. Results show that the synoptic configuration alone was sufficient to produce extreme rainfall, but human-induced warming substantially enhanced its magnitude. Moisture content and transport increased by 18–24 %, convective instability (CAPE) by ~25 %, and precipitation over Valencia increased by ~20 % in the Factual scenario. Sea surface temperatures in the Western Mediterranean were ~2 °C warmer, amplifying evaporation. Peak precipitation rates exhibited nonlinear amplification, on 29 October were about 36 % higher in the Factual scenario, exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling expected from the mean warming between scenarios. These findings indicate that anthropogenic warming can intensify EPEs in the WMed even when synoptic drivers alone would generate extreme rainfall, highlighting thermodynamic amplification as a key mechanism in Mediterranean flood events. High-resolution, physically consistent storyline simulations offer a robust framework for event-based attribution and improve understanding of future climate risks in vulnerable coastal regions.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{campos2026october,
  title = {{The October 2024 extreme precipitation event over Valencia: storyline attribution of the synoptic-scale thermodynamic drivers}},
  author = {Diego Alvaro Campos and Katherine Grayson and Ramiro I. Saurral and Sebastian Beyer and Amal John and Matias Ezequiel Olmo and Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes},
  journal = {Weather and Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The October 2024 extreme precipitation event over Valencia: storyline attribution of the synoptic-scale thermodynamic drivers
AU  - Diego Alvaro Campos
AU  - Katherine Grayson
AU  - Ramiro I. Saurral
AU  - Sebastian Beyer
AU  - Amal John
AU  - Matias Ezequiel Olmo
AU  - Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/07
JO  - Weather and Climate Dynamics
DO  - 10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1153-2026
AB  - In late October 2024, the western Mediterranean (WMed) region experienced an extreme precipitation event (EPE) centred over Valencia, southeastern Spain, associated with a quasi-stationary cut-off low (COL), producing record rainfall, flash floods, and severe societal impacts. The COL generated an atmospheric-river-like moisture plume from northwestern Africa, while additional moisture originated from the warm Mediterranean Sea. Interaction with regional orography created a highly unstable environment, favouring deep convection and intense local rainfall. To assess the influence of anthropogenic climate change, we analyse high-resolution (∼9 km) storyline simulations from the European Union’s Destination Earth initiative, using the coupled IFS-FESOM model spectrally nudged with ERA5. Two climate scenarios are compared: Factual (present-day) and Counterfactual (~1950), isolating thermodynamic responses while keeping large-scale circulation fixed. Long-term IFS-FESOM and ERA5 datasets provide a climatological reference for event extremeness. Results show that the synoptic configuration alone was sufficient to produce extreme rainfall, but human-induced warming substantially enhanced its magnitude. Moisture content and transport increased by 18–24 %, convective instability (CAPE) by ~25 %, and precipitation over Valencia increased by ~20 % in the Factual scenario. Sea surface temperatures in the Western Mediterranean were ~2 °C warmer, amplifying evaporation. Peak precipitation rates exhibited nonlinear amplification, on 29 October were about 36 % higher in the Factual scenario, exceeding the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling expected from the mean warming between scenarios. These findings indicate that anthropogenic warming can intensify EPEs in the WMed even when synoptic drivers alone would generate extreme rainfall, highlighting thermodynamic amplification as a key mechanism in Mediterranean flood events. High-resolution, physically consistent storyline simulations offer a robust framework for event-based attribution and improve understanding of future climate risks in vulnerable coastal regions.
SN  - 2698-4016
ER  -