HST imaging, pipeline modeling, and time-delay predictions of 2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged lensed quasars
Abstract
The Hubble tension remains a significant challenge in modern cosmology, exhibiting a discrepancy between early-Universe cosmic microwave background measurements and local distance ladder observations. Strong lensing time-delay cosmography provides an independent, geometric probe of H0 that can help resolve this discrepancy. Although hundreds of lensed quasars have been discovered, only a handful have been analyzed due to the resource-intensive follow-up required to measure precise time delays and break degeneracies. We present uniform gravitational lens modeling of 17 recently discovered lensed quasar systems (2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged) to identify and prioritize the most promising candidates for future cosmological study. Using high-resolution near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3/IR F160W imaging (PID: 17916, PI: T. Treu), we perform uniform pipeline modeling with Lenstronomy. We constrain the mass and light profiles of the deflector galaxies, and assuming a fiducial cosmology, we predict their Fermat potential differences and expected time delays. Our pipeline successfully yields models and time-delay predictions for all 17 systems. Assuming ideal monitoring conditions, we estimate the total contribution from time-delay and Fermat potential modeling errors to the time-delay distance. From this, we classify the systems by estimated time-delay distance uncertainties: six "excellent" (≤ 3%), five "good" (3%-7%), three "suitable" (7%-12%), and three "impractical" (>12%). We recommend prioritizing follow-up campaigns on the 11 "excellent" and "good" systems, which have the potential to deliver high-precision, independent constraints on H0 to help resolve the Hubble tension.
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BibTeX
@misc{sheu2026imaging,
title = {{HST imaging, pipeline modeling, and time-delay predictions of 2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged lensed quasars}},
author = {William Sheu and Tommaso Treu and Adriano Agnello and Timo Anguita and Simon Birrer and Daniel Gilman and Xiaosheng Huang and Richard G. McMahon and Nicholas D. Morgan and Veronica Motta and Anna Nierenberg and Kenneth C. Wong and Ioana Zelko},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.07470},
eprint = {2608.07470},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07470},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - HST imaging, pipeline modeling, and time-delay predictions of 2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged lensed quasars
AU - William Sheu
AU - Tommaso Treu
AU - Adriano Agnello
AU - Timo Anguita
AU - Simon Birrer
AU - Daniel Gilman
AU - Xiaosheng Huang
AU - Richard G. McMahon
AU - Nicholas D. Morgan
AU - Veronica Motta
AU - Anna Nierenberg
AU - Kenneth C. Wong
AU - Ioana Zelko
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/13
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.07470
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07470
AB - The Hubble tension remains a significant challenge in modern cosmology, exhibiting a discrepancy between early-Universe cosmic microwave background measurements and local distance ladder observations. Strong lensing time-delay cosmography provides an independent, geometric probe of H_0 that can help resolve this discrepancy. Although hundreds of lensed quasars have been discovered, only a handful have been analyzed due to the resource-intensive follow-up required to measure precise time delays and break degeneracies. We present uniform gravitational lens modeling of 17 recently discovered lensed quasar systems (2 triply-imaged and 15 quadruply-imaged) to identify and prioritize the most promising candidates for future cosmological study. Using high-resolution near-infrared Hubble Space Telescope WFC3/IR F160W imaging (PID: 17916, PI: T. Treu), we perform uniform pipeline modeling with Lenstronomy. We constrain the mass and light profiles of the deflector galaxies, and assuming a fiducial cosmology, we predict their Fermat potential differences and expected time delays. Our pipeline successfully yields models and time-delay predictions for all 17 systems. Assuming ideal monitoring conditions, we estimate the total contribution from time-delay and Fermat potential modeling errors to the time-delay distance. From this, we classify the systems by estimated time-delay distance uncertainties: six "excellent" (≤ 3%), five "good" (3%-7%), three "suitable" (7%-12%), and three "impractical" (>12%). We recommend prioritizing follow-up campaigns on the 11 "excellent" and "good" systems, which have the potential to deliver high-precision, independent constraints on H_0 to help resolve the Hubble tension.
ER -