Understanding African swine fever dynamics in South Korean pig farms through agent-based modeling and spatiotemporal analysis of farm outbreaks
- 1College of Veterinary Medicine and Bio-Safety Research Institute, Jeonbuk National University, Iksan, Republic of Korea
Abstract
African swine fever continues to pose a major threat to the swine industry in South Korea since 2019, with increased farm outbreaks in 2026. This study applied agent-based modeling and spatiotemporal outbreak analysis to characterize ASF dynamics at within-farm and between-farm levels. A stochastic SEIR agent-based model was developed to simulate within-farm transmission through direct pig-to-pig contact and indirect environmental pathways under varying epidemiological and biosecurity conditions. For the between-farm component, spatiotemporal patterns of confirmed farm outbreaks from 2019 to 2026 were analyzed, with particular emphasis on the 2026 epidemic. Notably, the 2026 outbreak pattern showed early multifocal occurrence, followed by regional clustering and broader geographic dispersion. Distance-based analysis of temporally ordered confirmed outbreaks showed a median nearest-neighbor distance of approximately 31 km, with several outbreaks located >100 km from the nearest previously confirmed outbreak, including during the early phase of the epidemic. These findings are compatible with a multi-pathway interpretation in which local clustering, delayed detection, unobserved intermediate infections, and non-local production-network-associated pathways may all contribute to observed outbreak patterns. This combined analytical approach provides a more cautious and comprehensive understanding of ASF dynamics in South Korean pig farms and highlights the need for control strategies that couple strong farm-level biosecurity and rapid local response with broader surveillance and risk management of high-connectivity points in the pig production system.
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BibTeX
@article{tanveer2026understanding,
title = {{Understanding African swine fever dynamics in South Korean pig farms through agent-based modeling and spatiotemporal analysis of farm outbreaks}},
author = {Maryum Tanveer and Fabrice Hirwa and Eurade Ntakiyisumba and Gayeon Won},
journal = {Frontiers in Veterinary Science},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fvets.2026.1945299},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2026.1945299},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Understanding African swine fever dynamics in South Korean pig farms through agent-based modeling and spatiotemporal analysis of farm outbreaks
AU - Maryum Tanveer
AU - Fabrice Hirwa
AU - Eurade Ntakiyisumba
AU - Gayeon Won
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/22
JO - Frontiers in Veterinary Science
DO - 10.3389/fvets.2026.1945299
UR - https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2026.1945299
AB - African swine fever continues to pose a major threat to the swine industry in South Korea since 2019, with increased farm outbreaks in 2026. This study applied agent-based modeling and spatiotemporal outbreak analysis to characterize ASF dynamics at within-farm and between-farm levels. A stochastic SEIR agent-based model was developed to simulate within-farm transmission through direct pig-to-pig contact and indirect environmental pathways under varying epidemiological and biosecurity conditions. For the between-farm component, spatiotemporal patterns of confirmed farm outbreaks from 2019 to 2026 were analyzed, with particular emphasis on the 2026 epidemic. Notably, the 2026 outbreak pattern showed early multifocal occurrence, followed by regional clustering and broader geographic dispersion. Distance-based analysis of temporally ordered confirmed outbreaks showed a median nearest-neighbor distance of approximately 31 km, with several outbreaks located >100 km from the nearest previously confirmed outbreak, including during the early phase of the epidemic. These findings are compatible with a multi-pathway interpretation in which local clustering, delayed detection, unobserved intermediate infections, and non-local production-network-associated pathways may all contribute to observed outbreak patterns. This combined analytical approach provides a more cautious and comprehensive understanding of ASF dynamics in South Korean pig farms and highlights the need for control strategies that couple strong farm-level biosecurity and rapid local response with broader surveillance and risk management of high-connectivity points in the pig production system.
SN - 2297-1769
ER -