Climate change, infectious disease, and the spread of microblades across the Qinling-Huaihe line
- 1Leland Stanford Junior University: Stanford University
Abstract
Aoki et al. (2023) proposed that the sharp difference in microblade distribution between the north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe (H-Q) line before the early Holocene could have been due to a higher frequency of pathogens in the south. Greater susceptibility to pathogen-induced disease among northerners could have effectively prevented migration across the H-Q line. Here, we explore the possibility that migration between the north and south could have been stalled by a vector-borne disease whose vector distribution was climate dependent. The original wave equation approach is extended to include climate variation in the forms of (i) a period of linear warming; (ii) a period of linear cooling; and (iii) a period of temperature oscillations. Simulations of this extended model are carried out using published estimates of the climate record for the Northern Hemisphere since the Upper Paleolithic. This analysis suggests possible time intervals during which microblades could have reached the south.
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BibTeX
@misc{elgart2026climate,
title = {{Climate change, infectious disease, and the spread of microblades across the Qinling-Huaihe line}},
author = {S. Elgart and K. Aoki and M. W. Feldman},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.14.751440},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.751440v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Climate change, infectious disease, and the spread of microblades across the Qinling-Huaihe line
AU - S. Elgart
AU - K. Aoki
AU - M. W. Feldman
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/14
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.14.751440
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.14.751440v1
AB - Aoki et al. (2023) proposed that the sharp difference in microblade distribution between the north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe (H-Q) line before the early Holocene could have been due to a higher frequency of pathogens in the south. Greater susceptibility to pathogen-induced disease among northerners could have effectively prevented migration across the H-Q line. Here, we explore the possibility that migration between the north and south could have been stalled by a vector-borne disease whose vector distribution was climate dependent. The original wave equation approach is extended to include climate variation in the forms of (i) a period of linear warming; (ii) a period of linear cooling; and (iii) a period of temperature oscillations. Simulations of this extended model are carried out using published estimates of the climate record for the Northern Hemisphere since the Upper Paleolithic. This analysis suggests possible time intervals during which microblades could have reached the south.
ER -