SIETAS model: Swarm-informed triggering, earthquake diffusion, and multiscaling applied to the current Campi Flegrei unrest
Abstract
Earthquake diffusion is commonly interpreted either as the migration of fluids or as the propagation of triggering cascades within branching processes. In the latter framework, anomalous diffusion emerges naturally from the long-memory kernels of epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models. Here, we introduce a swarm-informed ETAS (SIETAS) model designed to describe volcanic seismic swarms. The model combines a temporally truncated power-law triggering kernel with a spatially localized logistic kernel, thereby introducing intrinsic temporal and spatial scales into the triggering process. Using an AI earthquake catalog from the ongoing Campi Flegrei unrest, we show that SIETAS provides a substantially better description of seismicity than the standard ETAS formulation. We further demonstrate that earthquake diffusion exhibits clear multiscaling behavior characterized by three effective scaling regimes. Analytical arguments based on branching-process theory and continuous-time random walks indicate that the SIETAS kernels generate a crossover from transient anomalous diffusion to an effectively normal-diffusive regime, followed by saturation due to finite subcriticality. We discuss how the observed multiscaling behavior may emerge from the interplay between short-time triggering, finite temporal memory, finite spatial localization, and secondary components of the triggering kernel. These results establish a connection between swarm-informed earthquake triggering and multiscale diffusion phenomena in volcanic environments.
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BibTeX
@article{godano2026sietas,
title = {{SIETAS model: Swarm-informed triggering, earthquake diffusion, and multiscaling applied to the current Campi Flegrei unrest}},
author = {Cataldo Godano and Anna Tramelli and Vincenzo Convertito and Giuseppe Petrillo},
journal = {Physical Review Research},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1103/wv9d-2wjc},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05802129v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - SIETAS model: Swarm-informed triggering, earthquake diffusion, and multiscaling applied to the current Campi Flegrei unrest
AU - Cataldo Godano
AU - Anna Tramelli
AU - Vincenzo Convertito
AU - Giuseppe Petrillo
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/15
JO - Physical Review Research
DO - 10.1103/wv9d-2wjc
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05802129v1
AB - Earthquake diffusion is commonly interpreted either as the migration of fluids or as the propagation of triggering cascades within branching processes. In the latter framework, anomalous diffusion emerges naturally from the long-memory kernels of epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models. Here, we introduce a swarm-informed ETAS (SIETAS) model designed to describe volcanic seismic swarms. The model combines a temporally truncated power-law triggering kernel with a spatially localized logistic kernel, thereby introducing intrinsic temporal and spatial scales into the triggering process. Using an AI earthquake catalog from the ongoing Campi Flegrei unrest, we show that SIETAS provides a substantially better description of seismicity than the standard ETAS formulation. We further demonstrate that earthquake diffusion exhibits clear multiscaling behavior characterized by three effective scaling regimes. Analytical arguments based on branching-process theory and continuous-time random walks indicate that the SIETAS kernels generate a crossover from transient anomalous diffusion to an effectively normal-diffusive regime, followed by saturation due to finite subcriticality. We discuss how the observed multiscaling behavior may emerge from the interplay between short-time triggering, finite temporal memory, finite spatial localization, and secondary components of the triggering kernel. These results establish a connection between swarm-informed earthquake triggering and multiscale diffusion phenomena in volcanic environments.
SN - 2643-1564
SN - 2643-1564
ER -