The added value of considering evapotranspiration fluxes in the calibration of a semi-distributed hydrological model
Abstract
Trust in hydrological model projections is often challenged by the model’s capacity to simulate streamflows under non-stationary conditions imposed by climate change. While many studies focus on uncertainties arising from climate scenarios or downscaling methods of climate projections, uncertainties linked to the hydrological model structure and calibration strategies remain comparatively overlooked. In this work, we investigate how model calibration choices influence the performance and robustness of a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model under climate change. Beyond the traditional calibration based solely on discharge data, we introduce an additional constraint on actual evapotranspiration (ET) data to better represent the catchment’s water balance under historic climate, and enhance model transferability to simulate flows under future climate conditions. Our results show that the calibration strategy markedly affects future hydrological projections. The ET-constrained calibration strategy produces more spatially coherent fluxes and a more stable model response in non-stationary conditions. By better framing internal fluxes, this approach enhances the trustworthiness of hydrological projections under future climate scenarios, which is essential for water resources availability assessments and adaptive management.
Related
- Multi-objective optimisation of natural flood management for community-level property damage reduction using a physically based distributed hydrological model
- Evaluating hv-block cross-validation for dependence-aware model selection in reference evapotranspiration estimation
- Hydroclimatic controls and interaction-driven sensitivity of reference evapotranspiration across Indian climate regimes
- Similar evapotranspiration responses mask contrasting modes of water access during drought in California
- Intensification of irrigated agriculture and precipitation explain rising evapotranspiration in the Snake River Basin despite declining atmospheric demand
BibTeX
@article{collignan2026added,
title = {{The added value of considering evapotranspiration fluxes in the calibration of a semi-distributed hydrological model}},
author = {Julie Collignan and Alban de Lavenne and Maria-Helena Ramos},
journal = {International Journal of River Basin Management},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1080/15715124.2026.2711679},
url = {https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05774186v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The added value of considering evapotranspiration fluxes in the calibration of a semi-distributed hydrological model
AU - Julie Collignan
AU - Alban de Lavenne
AU - Maria-Helena Ramos
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/19
JO - International Journal of River Basin Management
DO - 10.1080/15715124.2026.2711679
UR - https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05774186v1
AB - Trust in hydrological model projections is often challenged by the model’s capacity to simulate streamflows under non-stationary conditions imposed by climate change. While many studies focus on uncertainties arising from climate scenarios or downscaling methods of climate projections, uncertainties linked to the hydrological model structure and calibration strategies remain comparatively overlooked. In this work, we investigate how model calibration choices influence the performance and robustness of a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model under climate change. Beyond the traditional calibration based solely on discharge data, we introduce an additional constraint on actual evapotranspiration (ET) data to better represent the catchment’s water balance under historic climate, and enhance model transferability to simulate flows under future climate conditions. Our results show that the calibration strategy markedly affects future hydrological projections. The ET-constrained calibration strategy produces more spatially coherent fluxes and a more stable model response in non-stationary conditions. By better framing internal fluxes, this approach enhances the trustworthiness of hydrological projections under future climate scenarios, which is essential for water resources availability assessments and adaptive management.
SN - 1571-5124
ER -