Climate change impacts on the predicted performance of optimized building-integrated photovoltaics
- 1University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- 2Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
Abstract
Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) are a promising strategy for enhancing building energy performance and reducing carbon emissions. However, most design optimization studies rely on historical climate datasets that may fail to capture the operating conditions buildings will experience under climate change. This study develops a computational framework for the multi-objective optimization of BIPV envelope systems using future climate projections from the CanESM5 model under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. We analyze two system configurations, awning shades and thin-film window coatings, across four cities with diverse climates (Berlin, Los Angeles, Chicago, Singapore), comparing results from conventional EPW files, NASA 2023 historical data, and 2046–2050 climate scenarios. Optimization integrates electricity generation, thermal loads, and daylighting quality to capture building-level trade-offs. Results show that traditional EPW datasets systematically under-predict BIPV performance, particularly in Berlin and Los Angeles. Under 2046–2050 projected conditions, all four cities exhibit performance gains: substantial in Berlin, Chicago and Los Angeles, and marginal in Singapore, with the largest absolute gains in Los Angeles. By 2050, unshaded windows transition to consistently detrimental for building energy balance. Thin-film coatings achieve optimal outcomes at high absorptance, in the 80–90% range, contrary to current low-absorption design practice. Within the CanESM5 SSP3-7.0 scenario examined, these findings show that projected climate conditions can substantially reshape the modeled performance landscape of BIPV systems, emphasizing the need for forward-looking climate projections in building design optimization and the growing importance of BIPV for climate-adaptive and resilient urban buildings.
Related
- Integrated Urban Climate Resilience and Sustainability Assessment System for Urban Regeneration and Building Renovation
- A novel integrated workflow for deep geothermal reservoir characterization using core data, optimized coupled petrophysical–seismic modeling, and machine learning: A case study from the SW Paris Basin, France
- Enhancing the advection module performance in the EPICC-Model V1.6.0 via GPU-HADVPPM4HIP V1.0 coupling and GPU-optimized strategies
- From process simulation to circular value: environmental-economic assessment of advanced recycling for end-of-life photovoltaics
- An integrated human capital and responsible AI framework for sustainable organizational performance using PLS-SEM analysis
BibTeX
@article{hannoufa2026climate,
title = {{Climate change impacts on the predicted performance of optimized building-integrated photovoltaics}},
author = {Elyas Hannoufa and Eric Johlin},
journal = {PLOS Climate},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pclm.0001087},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001087},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate change impacts on the predicted performance of optimized building-integrated photovoltaics
AU - Elyas Hannoufa
AU - Eric Johlin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
JO - PLOS Climate
DO - 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001087
UR - https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0001087
AB - Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) are a promising strategy for enhancing building energy performance and reducing carbon emissions. However, most design optimization studies rely on historical climate datasets that may fail to capture the operating conditions buildings will experience under climate change. This study develops a computational framework for the multi-objective optimization of BIPV envelope systems using future climate projections from the CanESM5 model under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. We analyze two system configurations, awning shades and thin-film window coatings, across four cities with diverse climates (Berlin, Los Angeles, Chicago, Singapore), comparing results from conventional EPW files, NASA 2023 historical data, and 2046–2050 climate scenarios. Optimization integrates electricity generation, thermal loads, and daylighting quality to capture building-level trade-offs. Results show that traditional EPW datasets systematically under-predict BIPV performance, particularly in Berlin and Los Angeles. Under 2046–2050 projected conditions, all four cities exhibit performance gains: substantial in Berlin, Chicago and Los Angeles, and marginal in Singapore, with the largest absolute gains in Los Angeles. By 2050, unshaded windows transition to consistently detrimental for building energy balance. Thin-film coatings achieve optimal outcomes at high absorptance, in the 80–90% range, contrary to current low-absorption design practice. Within the CanESM5 SSP3-7.0 scenario examined, these findings show that projected climate conditions can substantially reshape the modeled performance landscape of BIPV systems, emphasizing the need for forward-looking climate projections in building design optimization and the growing importance of BIPV for climate-adaptive and resilient urban buildings.
SN - 2767-3200
ER -