Geospatial assessment of Japanese encephalitis virus infection risk in Australia
- 1Infectious Disease Dynamics Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, the University of Melbourne
Abstract
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a leading cause of viral encephalitis in humans in Asia. Prior to 2021, only sporadic outbreaks had been detected in Australias tropical northern extremes. However, during 2021-23, JEV infection was identified in 45 people and in more than 85 piggeries, together with many detections in feral pigs, mosquitoes, and other livestock across Australia, including in the temperate far south. Here we estimated the spatial extent of virus transmission during the outbreak (the realised niche) and the area environmentally suitable for transmission (the potential niche). We collated a national dataset of JEV surveillance and detection in humans, mosquitoes, domestic pigs, feral pigs, and sentinel chickens from 2021-23. We combined these data with (1) previously published predictions of habitat suitability for vertebrate host and vector species, and (2) estimated densities of humans, domestic pigs, and feral pigs, in a multipart assessment of spatial risk. Our model projected broad potential environmental suitability over much of northern and eastern Australia during the outbreak period, but floodplain wetland areas in the north and the inland east of Australia had both the highest estimated environmental suitability for transmission, and the strongest evidence for virus circulation.
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BibTeX
@misc{harrison2026geospatial,
title = {{Geospatial assessment of Japanese encephalitis virus infection risk in Australia}},
author = {L. E. Harrison and D. H. Duncan and J. A. Flegg and D. J. Price and N. Kurucz and X. Tolosa and P. J. Neville and C. C. Jansen and A. Potter and C. Brockway and K. L. Miller and M. Hobby and V. Burns and K. M. Glasgow and A. D. Draper and J. Schmidt and G. Weerasinghe and A. F. van den Hurk and D. T. Williams and S. L. Doggett and N. Golding and F. M. Shearer},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.15.26365607},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.15.26365607v1},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Geospatial assessment of Japanese encephalitis virus infection risk in Australia
AU - L. E. Harrison
AU - D. H. Duncan
AU - J. A. Flegg
AU - D. J. Price
AU - N. Kurucz
AU - X. Tolosa
AU - P. J. Neville
AU - C. C. Jansen
AU - A. Potter
AU - C. Brockway
AU - K. L. Miller
AU - M. Hobby
AU - V. Burns
AU - K. M. Glasgow
AU - A. D. Draper
AU - J. Schmidt
AU - G. Weerasinghe
AU - A. F. van den Hurk
AU - D. T. Williams
AU - S. L. Doggett
AU - N. Golding
AU - F. M. Shearer
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/15
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.15.26365607
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.15.26365607v1
AB - Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a leading cause of viral encephalitis in humans in Asia. Prior to 2021, only sporadic outbreaks had been detected in Australias tropical northern extremes. However, during 2021-23, JEV infection was identified in 45 people and in more than 85 piggeries, together with many detections in feral pigs, mosquitoes, and other livestock across Australia, including in the temperate far south. Here we estimated the spatial extent of virus transmission during the outbreak (the realised niche) and the area environmentally suitable for transmission (the potential niche). We collated a national dataset of JEV surveillance and detection in humans, mosquitoes, domestic pigs, feral pigs, and sentinel chickens from 2021-23. We combined these data with (1) previously published predictions of habitat suitability for vertebrate host and vector species, and (2) estimated densities of humans, domestic pigs, and feral pigs, in a multipart assessment of spatial risk. Our model projected broad potential environmental suitability over much of northern and eastern Australia during the outbreak period, but floodplain wetland areas in the north and the inland east of Australia had both the highest estimated environmental suitability for transmission, and the strongest evidence for virus circulation.
ER -