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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-ND 4.0Journal of the National Cancer Center

Burden, trends, and projections of prostate cancer: global cancer statistics (GLOBOCAN) estimates for 2024 and 2022

  • Xiaomin Liu1
  • Wenlong Zheng2
  • Yuting Ji3
  • Jingjing Li4
  • Yunmeng Zhang5
  • Kexin Chen6
  • Fengju Song6
  • Lei Yang7,8,9
  • Yubei Huang6
9 affiliations
  1. 1Zibo Zhangdian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zibo, China
  2. 2Department of Non-communicable Disease Prevention, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China
  3. 3Chinese Institutes for Medical Research, Beijing Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
  4. 4Emergency Network and Quality Control Office, Beijing Emergency Medical Center, Beijing, China
  5. 5Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Central Theater Command, Beijing, China
  6. 6Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Cancer Prevention and Therapy, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
  7. 7State Key Laboratory of Holistic Integrative Management of Gastrointestinal Cancers, Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education), Beijing Office for Cancer Prevention and Control, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China
  8. 8Peking University Cancer Hospital (Inner Mongolia Campus)/Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University, Inner Mongolia Cancer Center, Hohhot, China
  9. 9School of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China
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Abstract

Objective: Prostate cancer remains a major health burden with substantial epidemiological disparities. Integrating updated estimates is essential for understanding evolving disease patterns and guiding future health policies.

Methods: Using GLOBOCAN 2024, we systematically analyzed prostate cancer incidence and mortality across 186 countries, stratified by United Nations regions, age at onset (<50 vs. ≥50 years), and Human Development Index (HDI). Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change, and future burden was projected to 2050 assuming constant age-specific rates. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated as a surrogate for health-system performance.

Results: In 2024, an estimated 1,546,112 new cases (ASIR 29.30/100,000) and 419,849 deaths (ASMR 7.50/100,000) occurred globally, an increase of 5% from 2022. North America had the highest incidence (ASIR 80.82/100,000), whereas mortality was highest in the Caribbean (28.55/100,000) and Western Africa (24.60/100,000). Very-high-HDI countries had the highest incidence but favourable MIRs (∼0.13 in U.S.), whereas low-HDI countries had MIRs of ∼0.62 (Nigeria), signalling major diagnostic and therapeutic gaps. Temporal trends showed rising incidence in Africa and Asia, with declining mortality in most regions except Africa; early-onset mortality increased in Asia and Oceania. By 2050, global cases and deaths are projected to rise substantially, with the largest proportional increases in Africa; early-onset cases will decline in Eastern Asia, South America, and most of Europe.

Conclusions: The global prostate cancer burden is shifting towards transitioning countries, where low MIRs reveal major gaps in early detection. Prioritising risk-stratified screening and strengthening health-system infrastructure in resource-limited settings are urgently needed to guide global policy.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{liu2026burden,
  title = {{Burden, trends, and projections of prostate cancer: global cancer statistics (GLOBOCAN) estimates for 2024 and 2022}},
  author = {Xiaomin Liu and Wenlong Zheng and Yuting Ji and Jingjing Li and Yunmeng Zhang and Kexin Chen and Fengju Song and Lei Yang and Yubei Huang},
  journal = {Journal of the National Cancer Center},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1016/j.jncc.2026.09.008},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jncc.2026.09.008},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Burden, trends, and projections of prostate cancer: global cancer statistics (GLOBOCAN) estimates for 2024 and 2022
AU  - Xiaomin Liu
AU  - Wenlong Zheng
AU  - Yuting Ji
AU  - Jingjing Li
AU  - Yunmeng Zhang
AU  - Kexin Chen
AU  - Fengju Song
AU  - Lei Yang
AU  - Yubei Huang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/29
JO  - Journal of the National Cancer Center
DO  - 10.1016/j.jncc.2026.09.008
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jncc.2026.09.008
AB  - Objective: Prostate cancer remains a major health burden with substantial epidemiological disparities. Integrating updated estimates is essential for understanding evolving disease patterns and guiding future health policies.  Methods: Using GLOBOCAN 2024, we systematically analyzed prostate cancer incidence and mortality across 186 countries, stratified by United Nations regions, age at onset (<50 vs. ≥50 years), and Human Development Index (HDI). Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change, and future burden was projected to 2050 assuming constant age-specific rates. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated as a surrogate for health-system performance.  Results: In 2024, an estimated 1,546,112 new cases (ASIR 29.30/100,000) and 419,849 deaths (ASMR 7.50/100,000) occurred globally, an increase of 5% from 2022. North America had the highest incidence (ASIR 80.82/100,000), whereas mortality was highest in the Caribbean (28.55/100,000) and Western Africa (24.60/100,000). Very-high-HDI countries had the highest incidence but favourable MIRs (∼0.13 in U.S.), whereas low-HDI countries had MIRs of ∼0.62 (Nigeria), signalling major diagnostic and therapeutic gaps. Temporal trends showed rising incidence in Africa and Asia, with declining mortality in most regions except Africa; early-onset mortality increased in Asia and Oceania. By 2050, global cases and deaths are projected to rise substantially, with the largest proportional increases in Africa; early-onset cases will decline in Eastern Asia, South America, and most of Europe.  Conclusions: The global prostate cancer burden is shifting towards transitioning countries, where low MIRs reveal major gaps in early detection. Prioritising risk-stratified screening and strengthening health-system infrastructure in resource-limited settings are urgently needed to guide global policy.
SN  - 2096-8663
SN  - 2667-0054
ER  -