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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-NDNatural Hazards Research

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on microtremor data: A site effect study for earthquake disaster mitigation at Malang Regency, Indonesia

  • Ilham1
  • Adi Susilo2
  • Alamsyah M. Juwono3
  • I Nyoman Sukanta4
  • Haura Dhiya Amaninida5
  • Rika Adelina Ginting6
  • Ahmad Zarkoni7
  • Andy Anderson Bery8
  • Muhammad Fathur Rouf Hasan9
9 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia; Malang Geophysical Station, Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency, 65165, Malang, Indonesia
  2. 2Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia; Center Study on Geosciences and Hazard Mitigation, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia; Corresponding author. Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia
  3. 3Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia; Center Study on Geosciences and Hazard Mitigation, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia
  4. 4Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency, 10610, Jakarta, Indonesia
  5. 5Gorontalo Geophysical Station, Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency, 96131, Gorontalo, Indonesia; Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT, England, UK
  6. 6Aceh Besar Geophysical Station, Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency, 23373, Aceh, Indonesia
  7. 7Malang Geophysical Station, Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency, 65165, Malang, Indonesia; Department of Informatics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Islamic State University Maulana Malik Ibrahim, 65144, Malang, Indonesia
  8. 8Earth System Processes and Hazard Modeling Center, Geophysics Programme, School of Physics, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800, Penang, Malaysia
  9. 9Graduate School, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia; Center Study on Geosciences and Hazard Mitigation, Universitas Brawijaya, 65145, Malang, Indonesia
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Abstract

The 6.1 magnitude earthquake on April 10, 2021, with its hypocenter near the southern coast of Malang Regency, Indonesia, caused extensive damage, including in the Turen District. Turen District is a densely populated area and home to one of the state's defense and security equipment manufacturers, Pindad Company. This study aims to determine the site effect (v s30 ) using the microtremor method and the ground motion using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method in Turen. The ground motion parameters, represented as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.2, 1, and 3 s, are triggered by various earthquake sources, including subduction and fault earthquakes, as well as background earthquakes, using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Microtremor measurements were conducted at 54 points across the research site. The results show the v s30 ranges from 352.81 to 553.92 m/s, which is dominated by very dense soil criteria. The PGAs, SA0.2, 1.0, and 3.0 vary between 0.72 and 0.79 g , 1.72 - 1.89 g , 0.92 - 1.02 g , and 0.27 - 0.29 g, respectively. The damage caused by the 6.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in areas with relatively low v s30 values. This study also proposes a local seismic design expected to assist local governments in earthquake disaster mitigation and serve as a reference for building construction.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{ilham2026probabilistic,
  title = {{Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on microtremor data: A site effect study for earthquake disaster mitigation at Malang Regency, Indonesia}},
  author = {Ilham and Adi Susilo and Alamsyah M. Juwono and I Nyoman Sukanta and Haura Dhiya Amaninida and Rika Adelina Ginting and Ahmad Zarkoni and Andy Anderson Bery and Muhammad Fathur Rouf Hasan},
  journal = {Natural Hazards Research},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1016/j.nhres.2025.11.004},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2025.11.004},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on microtremor data: A site effect study for earthquake disaster mitigation at Malang Regency, Indonesia
AU  - Ilham
AU  - Adi Susilo
AU  - Alamsyah M. Juwono
AU  - I Nyoman Sukanta
AU  - Haura Dhiya Amaninida
AU  - Rika Adelina Ginting
AU  - Ahmad Zarkoni
AU  - Andy Anderson Bery
AU  - Muhammad Fathur Rouf Hasan
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/01
JO  - Natural Hazards Research
DO  - 10.1016/j.nhres.2025.11.004
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2025.11.004
AB  - The 6.1 magnitude earthquake on April 10, 2021, with its hypocenter near the southern coast of Malang Regency, Indonesia, caused extensive damage, including in the Turen District. Turen District is a densely populated area and home to one of the state's defense and security equipment manufacturers, Pindad Company. This study aims to determine the site effect (v s30 ) using the microtremor method and the ground motion using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method in Turen. The ground motion parameters, represented as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.2, 1, and 3 s, are triggered by various earthquake sources, including subduction and fault earthquakes, as well as background earthquakes, using the Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Microtremor measurements were conducted at 54 points across the research site. The results show the v s30 ranges from 352.81 to 553.92 m/s, which is dominated by very dense soil criteria. The PGAs, SA0.2, 1.0, and 3.0 vary between 0.72 and 0.79 g , 1.72 - 1.89 g , 0.92 - 1.02 g , and 0.27 - 0.29 g, respectively. The damage caused by the 6.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in areas with relatively low v s30 values. This study also proposes a local seismic design expected to assist local governments in earthquake disaster mitigation and serve as a reference for building construction.
SN  - 2666-5921
ER  -