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PreprintCC BY 4.0Zenodo

High Emissions Amid Policy Rollback: The GCAM Marker & Scenario Suite for CMIP7

  • Mel George1
  • Brian O'Neill
  • Andy LaFleur
  • Steven Smith
  • Xin Zhao
  • Clàudia Rodés-Bachs2
  • Jay Fuhrman
  • Matthew Gidden
  • Haewon McJeon3
  • Yang Ou4
  • Jon Sampedro
  • Dirk-Jan van de Ven2
5 more authors
  • Ryna Cui
  • Xiangwen Fu
  • Rachel Hoesly
  • Dhruv Modi
  • Christoph Bertram
4 affiliations
  1. 1Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland
  2. 2Basque Centre for Climate Change
  3. 3Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
  4. 4Peking University
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Abstract

Preprint of High Emissions Amid Policy Rollback: The GCAM Marker & Scenario Suite for CMIP7, submitted to Environmental Research Letters

This paper documents the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) contribution to ScenarioMIP for CMIP7, focusing on the SSP3-based High emission scenario selected as the CMIP7 high-emissions marker, while also presenting the full eight-scenario GCAM suite from High to Very Low emissions.

We map distinct socioeconomic routes to the contemporary high end of the emissions range and assesses the High emissions scenario against the multi-model ensemble, contemporary scenario literature and probabilistic emissions projections, and compare it with CMIP6-era SSP3 and SSP5-8.5 pathways.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{george2026high,
  title = {{High Emissions Amid Policy Rollback: The GCAM Marker & Scenario Suite for CMIP7}},
  author = {Mel George and Brian O'Neill and Andy LaFleur and Steven Smith and Xin Zhao and Clàudia Rodés-Bachs and Jay Fuhrman and Matthew Gidden and Haewon McJeon and Yang Ou and Jon Sampedro and Dirk-Jan van de Ven and Ryna Cui and Xiangwen Fu and Rachel Hoesly and Dhruv Modi and Christoph Bertram},
  howpublished = {Zenodo},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23494258},
  url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23494258},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - High Emissions Amid Policy Rollback: The GCAM Marker & Scenario Suite for CMIP7
AU  - Mel George
AU  - Brian O'Neill
AU  - Andy LaFleur
AU  - Steven Smith
AU  - Xin Zhao
AU  - Clàudia Rodés-Bachs
AU  - Jay Fuhrman
AU  - Matthew Gidden
AU  - Haewon McJeon
AU  - Yang Ou
AU  - Jon Sampedro
AU  - Dirk-Jan van de Ven
AU  - Ryna Cui
AU  - Xiangwen Fu
AU  - Rachel Hoesly
AU  - Dhruv Modi
AU  - Christoph Bertram
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/20
PB  - Zenodo
DO  - 10.5281/zenodo.23494258
UR  - https://zenodo.org/records/23494258
AB  - Preprint of High Emissions Amid Policy Rollback: The GCAM Marker & Scenario Suite for CMIP7, submitted to Environmental Research Letters  This paper documents the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) contribution to ScenarioMIP for CMIP7, focusing on the SSP3-based High emission scenario selected as the CMIP7 high-emissions marker, while also presenting the full eight-scenario GCAM suite from High to Very Low emissions.  We map distinct socioeconomic routes to the contemporary high end of the emissions range and assesses the High emissions scenario against the multi-model ensemble, contemporary scenario literature and probabilistic emissions projections, and compare it with CMIP6-era SSP3 and SSP5-8.5 pathways.
ER  -