Conditional validity of quantum event classifiers under collider systematics and quantum estimation uncertainty
Abstract
Assertions about collider classifiers require observable evidence and a specified deployment reference. We distinguish the classification threshold that selects events from the claim threshold that defines acceptable performance. For fixed nominal-weighted ratio claims on a frozen finite population, we apply established assorter reductions and bounded-mean confidence sequences under independent sampling with replacement and a predeclared weight bound. The anytime-valid error control is per claim, not automatically simultaneous across claims, and is not a new statistical guarantee. In 19,680 archived paired audit-stream comparisons, changing unweighted correctness and its source reference to nominal-weighted accuracy and its own reference changed 536 supported verdicts to unresolved and 226 in the reverse direction. Scores, labels, weights and exact ratios were available before these simulated audits; their stopping times demonstrate no operational acquisition saving. A post hoc analysis of 30 finite-shot quantum-kernel realizations, with paired RAW and diagonal-loading treatments, describes sensitivity to operating rules, ideal versus realized references, and fixed versus recomposed margin groups. Verdict differences are not auditor error rates, and no quantum-specific mechanism or quantum advantage is established. A CMS open-data example supports restricted aggregate statements while event-level accuracy remains unidentified. This substantial revision withdraws the previous physical-interval coverage conclusions following numerical-validation problems; the available reevaluation does not reestablish them. The retained contribution is mathematical exposition and descriptive evidence, without methodological-priority or calibrated physical-inference claims.
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BibTeX
@misc{fernandezbarrios2026conditional,
title = {{Conditional validity of quantum event classifiers under collider systematics and quantum estimation uncertainty}},
author = {Roberto Fernández-Barrios and Iker Pastor-López and Asier González-Santocildes and Pablo García Bringas},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.02781},
eprint = {2609.02781},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02781},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Conditional validity of quantum event classifiers under collider systematics and quantum estimation uncertainty
AU - Roberto Fernández-Barrios
AU - Iker Pastor-López
AU - Asier González-Santocildes
AU - Pablo García Bringas
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/02
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.02781
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02781
AB - Assertions about collider classifiers require observable evidence and a specified deployment reference. We distinguish the classification threshold that selects events from the claim threshold that defines acceptable performance. For fixed nominal-weighted ratio claims on a frozen finite population, we apply established assorter reductions and bounded-mean confidence sequences under independent sampling with replacement and a predeclared weight bound. The anytime-valid error control is per claim, not automatically simultaneous across claims, and is not a new statistical guarantee. In 19,680 archived paired audit-stream comparisons, changing unweighted correctness and its source reference to nominal-weighted accuracy and its own reference changed 536 supported verdicts to unresolved and 226 in the reverse direction. Scores, labels, weights and exact ratios were available before these simulated audits; their stopping times demonstrate no operational acquisition saving. A post hoc analysis of 30 finite-shot quantum-kernel realizations, with paired RAW and diagonal-loading treatments, describes sensitivity to operating rules, ideal versus realized references, and fixed versus recomposed margin groups. Verdict differences are not auditor error rates, and no quantum-specific mechanism or quantum advantage is established. A CMS open-data example supports restricted aggregate statements while event-level accuracy remains unidentified. This substantial revision withdraws the previous physical-interval coverage conclusions following numerical-validation problems; the available reevaluation does not reestablish them. The retained contribution is mathematical exposition and descriptive evidence, without methodological-priority or calibrated physical-inference claims.
ER -