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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Ecology and Evolution

Seabird Prey in Space and Time: Combining Multiple Datasets to Model the Distribution of Sandeel ( Ammodytes marinus ) and Sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ) in the North Sea

  • Sylvan Benaksas1
  • Christopher Lynam2
  • Francis Daunt3
  • Chibuzor Christopher Nnanatu2
  • Jeroen van der Kooij2
  • Thomas J. Webb1
  1. 1Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield Sheffield UK
  2. 2Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory Suffolk UK
  3. 3UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Midlothian UK
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Abstract

Many seabird populations along the UK's East Coast have declined over the past three decades. A key concern is reduced availability of their primary breeding season prey, sandeel ( Ammodytes marinus ). While some seabirds have partially switched to sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ), this is not universal. Studying these predator–prey dynamics requires fine‐scale estimates of prey distributions that are both spatially and temporally resolved—yet such data are limited, especially for sandeel due to sampling challenges. We evaluate the utility of large‐scale ICES bottom trawl surveys to model sandeel distribution, combining them with winter dredge surveys designed specifically for this species. For sprat, we combine bottom trawl data with the Herring Acoustic Survey. Using hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models (R‐INLA), we estimate the biomass of small and medium sandeel (≤ 16 cm) and sprat across the entire North Sea from 2000 to 2020, accounting for spatial and temporal dependencies. We validate our sandeel models by comparison with other modelling approaches and ICES stock assessments. Results reveal marked regional variation: sandeel increased in Area 3 (Norwegian EEZ), declined in Areas 1 and 2 and fluctuated in Area 4. Sprat biomass increased over time, with a modest northward expansion. This study provides the first North Sea‐wide, fine‐scale, multi‐decadal distribution models for these two key seabird prey species and identifies important regional drivers of their populations.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{benaksas2026seabird,
  title = {{Seabird Prey in Space and Time: Combining Multiple Datasets to Model the Distribution of Sandeel ( Ammodytes marinus ) and Sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ) in the North Sea}},
  author = {Sylvan Benaksas and Christopher Lynam and Francis Daunt and Chibuzor Christopher Nnanatu and Jeroen van der Kooij and Thomas J. Webb},
  journal = {Ecology and Evolution},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1002/ece3.74570},
  url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74570},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Seabird Prey in Space and Time: Combining Multiple Datasets to Model the Distribution of Sandeel ( Ammodytes marinus ) and Sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ) in the North Sea
AU  - Sylvan Benaksas
AU  - Christopher Lynam
AU  - Francis Daunt
AU  - Chibuzor Christopher Nnanatu
AU  - Jeroen van der Kooij
AU  - Thomas J. Webb
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/29
JO  - Ecology and Evolution
DO  - 10.1002/ece3.74570
UR  - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.74570
AB  - Many seabird populations along the UK's East Coast have declined over the past three decades. A key concern is reduced availability of their primary breeding season prey, sandeel ( Ammodytes marinus ). While some seabirds have partially switched to sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ), this is not universal. Studying these predator–prey dynamics requires fine‐scale estimates of prey distributions that are both spatially and temporally resolved—yet such data are limited, especially for sandeel due to sampling challenges. We evaluate the utility of large‐scale ICES bottom trawl surveys to model sandeel distribution, combining them with winter dredge surveys designed specifically for this species. For sprat, we combine bottom trawl data with the Herring Acoustic Survey. Using hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models (R‐INLA), we estimate the biomass of small and medium sandeel (≤ 16 cm) and sprat across the entire North Sea from 2000 to 2020, accounting for spatial and temporal dependencies. We validate our sandeel models by comparison with other modelling approaches and ICES stock assessments. Results reveal marked regional variation: sandeel increased in Area 3 (Norwegian EEZ), declined in Areas 1 and 2 and fluctuated in Area 4. Sprat biomass increased over time, with a modest northward expansion. This study provides the first North Sea‐wide, fine‐scale, multi‐decadal distribution models for these two key seabird prey species and identifies important regional drivers of their populations.
SN  - 2045-7758
SN  - 2045-7758
ER  -