Changing predictive asymmetry: network agenda correspondence between state media and the user on China's fertility policy (2013–2025)
4 affiliations
- 1School of Journalism and Culture Communication, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
- 2Non-traditional Security Research Center, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
- 3College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
- 4School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics
Abstract
Introduction: Over the past decade, China's fertility policy has shifted from restrictive population control toward pronatalist support, creating an important case for examining the adaptation of government communication in a platformized media environment.
Methods: We analyzed 126 fertility-policy posts published by People's Daily and 196,218 associated user comments on Weibo between 2013 and 2025. The LDA model was used to identify four topic-derived policy attributes. Event-based cross-lagged correlations evaluated directional associations against the Rozelle-Campbell baseline, while topic joint-intensity networks and event-level QAP correlations assessed aggregate structural correspondence. Analyses were conducted across three periods: the selective two-child reform period, the universal two-child policy period, and the three-child and pronatalist-support period.
Results: Four topic-derived attributes emerged: Policy Change and Childrearing Burdens, Women's Employment and Work-Family Responsibilities, Gender Preference and Family Norms , and Maternity Care and Childbirth Support . In the first two periods, media-preceding-only patterns were descriptively more frequent than user-preceding-only patterns. In the third period, user-preceding-only patterns became more frequent. Gender analysis revealed gender- and period-specific differences in users' relative attention to the four policy attributes.
Discussion: The relationship between the state-media and user agendas was heterogeneous rather than consistently media-led or user-led. Aggregate thematic similarity could coexist with weaker event-level structural correspondence. The findings are consistent with a potentially more reciprocal communication environment in the later policy period. It also indicates that fertility-policy communication should recognize gender-differentiated issue attention within the user agenda.
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BibTeX
@article{deng2026changing,
title = {{Changing predictive asymmetry: network agenda correspondence between state media and the user on China's fertility policy (2013–2025)}},
author = {Wen Deng and Zijun Mao and Yi Yang},
journal = {Frontiers in Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2026.1943400},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1943400/full},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Changing predictive asymmetry: network agenda correspondence between state media and the user on China's fertility policy (2013–2025)
AU - Wen Deng
AU - Zijun Mao
AU - Yi Yang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/16
JO - Frontiers in Public Health
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1943400
UR - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1943400/full
AB - Introduction: Over the past decade, China's fertility policy has shifted from restrictive population control toward pronatalist support, creating an important case for examining the adaptation of government communication in a platformized media environment. Methods: We analyzed 126 fertility-policy posts published by People's Daily and 196,218 associated user comments on Weibo between 2013 and 2025. The LDA model was used to identify four topic-derived policy attributes. Event-based cross-lagged correlations evaluated directional associations against the Rozelle-Campbell baseline, while topic joint-intensity networks and event-level QAP correlations assessed aggregate structural correspondence. Analyses were conducted across three periods: the selective two-child reform period, the universal two-child policy period, and the three-child and pronatalist-support period. Results: Four topic-derived attributes emerged: Policy Change and Childrearing Burdens, Women's Employment and Work-Family Responsibilities, Gender Preference and Family Norms , and Maternity Care and Childbirth Support . In the first two periods, media-preceding-only patterns were descriptively more frequent than user-preceding-only patterns. In the third period, user-preceding-only patterns became more frequent. Gender analysis revealed gender- and period-specific differences in users' relative attention to the four policy attributes. Discussion: The relationship between the state-media and user agendas was heterogeneous rather than consistently media-led or user-led. Aggregate thematic similarity could coexist with weaker event-level structural correspondence. The findings are consistent with a potentially more reciprocal communication environment in the later policy period. It also indicates that fertility-policy communication should recognize gender-differentiated issue attention within the user agenda.
SN - 2296-2565
ER -