Transforming shores: remote sensing analyses of two decades of coastal change in the Arabian Gulf (2001–2021)
- 1Civil and Urban Engineering, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- 2Center for Interacting Urban Networks (CITIES) and Mubadala Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences (Mubadala ACCESS), New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Abstract
Coastal zones along the Arabian Gulf have experienced extensive urban expansion and land–water transformation over the past two decades, yet comparable Gulf-wide evidence on how these changes vary across national, urban, and local scales remains limited. Building on a previously published regional assessment, this study extends the analysis through normalized comparisons across eight Gulf countries, quantitative assessment of 13 coastal urban centers, and examination of 33 selected 10 × 10 km Focus Zones. Landsat imagery from 2001 to 2021 and Random Forest classification were used to map urbanization, water-to-nonwater transitions, and nonwater-to-water transitions. These transitions are operationally termed reclamation and inundation, respectively, without independently attributing their causes. Regional results indicate approximately 6,827 km2 of nonurban-to-urban conversion, 1,011 km2 of water-to-nonwater conversion, and 1,810 km2 of nonwater-to-water conversion. The added comparisons reveal substantial differences in transformation patterns among countries, coastal urban centers, and selected local settings. Pooled overall classification accuracies were 92.00% for 2001 and 92.96% for 2021. Although mapped nonwater-to-water conversion exceeded the reverse transition regionally, this balance does not independently establish erosion, sea-level rise, permanent land loss, or flood risk. The analysis provides a consistent framework for comparing coastal transformation at regional, national, urban, and local scales, while highlighting the need to distinguish engineered development, natural coastal processes, and acquisition-related differences when interpreting mapped changes. Future work should integrate higher-frequency imagery, tidal normalization, elevation data, and field or very-high-resolution validation to better distinguish engineered, natural, and climate-related coastal processes. This study is therefore framed as a two-date, long-term change assessment based on endpoint comparisons between 2001 and 2021, rather than a continuous time-series analysis of the timing or sequence of change.
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BibTeX
@article{dahy2026transforming,
title = {{Transforming shores: remote sensing analyses of two decades of coastal change in the Arabian Gulf (2001–2021)}},
author = {Basam Dahy and Rita Sousa and John A. Burt},
journal = {Frontiers in Remote Sensing},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.3389/frsen.2026.1990489},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/frsen.2026.1990489},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Transforming shores: remote sensing analyses of two decades of coastal change in the Arabian Gulf (2001–2021)
AU - Basam Dahy
AU - Rita Sousa
AU - John A. Burt
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/02
JO - Frontiers in Remote Sensing
DO - 10.3389/frsen.2026.1990489
UR - https://doi.org/10.3389/frsen.2026.1990489
AB - Coastal zones along the Arabian Gulf have experienced extensive urban expansion and land–water transformation over the past two decades, yet comparable Gulf-wide evidence on how these changes vary across national, urban, and local scales remains limited. Building on a previously published regional assessment, this study extends the analysis through normalized comparisons across eight Gulf countries, quantitative assessment of 13 coastal urban centers, and examination of 33 selected 10 × 10 km Focus Zones. Landsat imagery from 2001 to 2021 and Random Forest classification were used to map urbanization, water-to-nonwater transitions, and nonwater-to-water transitions. These transitions are operationally termed reclamation and inundation, respectively, without independently attributing their causes. Regional results indicate approximately 6,827 km2 of nonurban-to-urban conversion, 1,011 km2 of water-to-nonwater conversion, and 1,810 km2 of nonwater-to-water conversion. The added comparisons reveal substantial differences in transformation patterns among countries, coastal urban centers, and selected local settings. Pooled overall classification accuracies were 92.00% for 2001 and 92.96% for 2021. Although mapped nonwater-to-water conversion exceeded the reverse transition regionally, this balance does not independently establish erosion, sea-level rise, permanent land loss, or flood risk. The analysis provides a consistent framework for comparing coastal transformation at regional, national, urban, and local scales, while highlighting the need to distinguish engineered development, natural coastal processes, and acquisition-related differences when interpreting mapped changes. Future work should integrate higher-frequency imagery, tidal normalization, elevation data, and field or very-high-resolution validation to better distinguish engineered, natural, and climate-related coastal processes. This study is therefore framed as a two-date, long-term change assessment based on endpoint comparisons between 2001 and 2021, rather than a continuous time-series analysis of the timing or sequence of change.
SN - 2673-6187
ER -