Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Parametric Galaxy Modeling in LSST

Abstract

We apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the problem of parametric galaxy modeling, estimating posterior distributions of galaxy properties such as ellipticity and brightness for more than 100,000 coadded images of galaxies taken from DC2, a simulated telescope survey resembling the ongoing Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This analysis focuses only on truly unblended galaxies detected as single objects. We use a physically informed prior, apply selection corrections to the likelihood, and systematically study the bias and calibration of our posteriors. The resulting posterior samples support rigorous probabilistic inference of galaxy model parameters and their uncertainties, even for low signal-to-noise galaxies that are often excluded from cosmological analyses. We implement the probabilistic modeling and MCMC inference using the JIF (Joint Image Framework) package, which we make freely available.

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BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@article{buchanan2026markov,
  title = {{Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Parametric Galaxy Modeling in LSST}},
  author = {James J. Buchanan and Michael D. Schneider and Kerianne Pruett and Robert E. Armstrong},
  journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/aea563},
  url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aea563},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

RIS

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian Parametric Galaxy Modeling in LSST
AU  - James J. Buchanan
AU  - Michael D. Schneider
AU  - Kerianne Pruett
AU  - Robert E. Armstrong
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/21
JO  - The Astrophysical Journal
DO  - 10.3847/1538-4357/aea563
UR  - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/aea563
AB  - We apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the problem of parametric galaxy modeling, estimating posterior distributions of galaxy properties such as ellipticity and brightness for more than 100,000 coadded images of galaxies taken from DC2, a simulated telescope survey resembling the ongoing Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). This analysis focuses only on truly unblended galaxies detected as single objects. We use a physically informed prior, apply selection corrections to the likelihood, and systematically study the bias and calibration of our posteriors. The resulting posterior samples support rigorous probabilistic inference of galaxy model parameters and their uncertainties, even for low signal-to-noise galaxies that are often excluded from cosmological analyses. We implement the probabilistic modeling and MCMC inference using the JIF (Joint Image Framework) package, which we make freely available.
SN  - 0004-637X
SN  - 1538-4357
ER  -

Abstract

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