Robust statistical significance for Gravitational Wave inference
Abstract
The field of gravitational-wave data analysis heavily relies on Bayes factors to make statements about astrophysical effects in events detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration. This is true on an event level, for example when discussing the potential detection of precession or eccentricity, as well as on a population level. For the latter, perhaps the main limiting factor is the reliance on the output from event-level nested sampling analyses, which is known to introduce growing uncertainties and biases as the number of detections increases. In both cases, while Bayes factors are useful when comparing different models, because the underlying distribution of Bayes factors in noise is unknown, it is often not possible to use them to make quantifiable statistical statements. Their statistical meaning is also questionable in the at least 20% of gravitational-wave events that contain transient noise artifacts. This paper shows that it is possible to use evidence networks, which can infer Bayes factors after learning the distinguishability between datasets, to solve all of the aforementioned problems. By being able to calculate up to 105 Bayes factors per second, we can construct background distributions of Bayes factors under different signal assumptions to estimate significance. We show that the high precision achieved allows us to scale the results from up to 104 events with no discernable bias on population-level quantities, while laying the foundations for a likelihood-free method that does not rely on the assumption of Gaussian and stationary noise.
Related
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BibTeX
@misc{gottel2026robust,
title = {{Robust statistical significance for Gravitational Wave inference}},
author = {Alexandre Sébastien Göttel},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.39785},
eprint = {2610.39785},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39785},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Robust statistical significance for Gravitational Wave inference
AU - Alexandre Sébastien Göttel
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/29
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.39785
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.39785
AB - The field of gravitational-wave data analysis heavily relies on Bayes factors to make statements about astrophysical effects in events detected by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA collaboration. This is true on an event level, for example when discussing the potential detection of precession or eccentricity, as well as on a population level. For the latter, perhaps the main limiting factor is the reliance on the output from event-level nested sampling analyses, which is known to introduce growing uncertainties and biases as the number of detections increases. In both cases, while Bayes factors are useful when comparing different models, because the underlying distribution of Bayes factors in noise is unknown, it is often not possible to use them to make quantifiable statistical statements. Their statistical meaning is also questionable in the at least 20% of gravitational-wave events that contain transient noise artifacts. This paper shows that it is possible to use evidence networks, which can infer Bayes factors after learning the distinguishability between datasets, to solve all of the aforementioned problems. By being able to calculate up to 10^5 Bayes factors per second, we can construct background distributions of Bayes factors under different signal assumptions to estimate significance. We show that the high precision achieved allows us to scale the results from up to 10^4 events with no discernable bias on population-level quantities, while laying the foundations for a likelihood-free method that does not rely on the assumption of Gaussian and stationary noise.
ER -