Why delivered costs understate prices in an integrated global hydrogen market
Abstract
Delivered-cost estimates are often used as proxies for hydrogen import prices. Yet they measure average supply-chain costs, whereas marginal prices measure the system value of an additional unit. Market interactions can make the two diverge, potentially biasing long-term price assumptions. We quantify this gap using an 81-region global hydrogen-market model, comparing each region's costs and prices when only its demand is active and when all regions' demands are active. The 2045 price-cost gap is positive in 78 regions and averages 63 EUR/MWh (52% of the single-buyer cost) on a demand-weighted basis. Only 12 EUR/MWh reflects higher average sourcing costs due to competing demand. The remaining 51 EUR/MWh is the difference between the global-market price and the delivered portfolio's average cost. In several regions, wholesale prices rise while average delivered costs fall. Hydrogen strategies should distinguish delivered-cost benchmarks from market-price expectations, as low-cost supply does not guarantee low regional market prices.
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BibTeX
@misc{weißenburger2026delivered,
title = {{Why delivered costs understate prices in an integrated global hydrogen market}},
author = {Bastian Weißenburger and Martin Wietschel and Patrick Plötz and Russell McKenna},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.41447},
eprint = {2610.41447},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41447},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Why delivered costs understate prices in an integrated global hydrogen market
AU - Bastian Weißenburger
AU - Martin Wietschel
AU - Patrick Plötz
AU - Russell McKenna
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.41447
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.41447
AB - Delivered-cost estimates are often used as proxies for hydrogen import prices. Yet they measure average supply-chain costs, whereas marginal prices measure the system value of an additional unit. Market interactions can make the two diverge, potentially biasing long-term price assumptions. We quantify this gap using an 81-region global hydrogen-market model, comparing each region's costs and prices when only its demand is active and when all regions' demands are active. The 2045 price-cost gap is positive in 78 regions and averages 63 EUR/MWh (52% of the single-buyer cost) on a demand-weighted basis. Only 12 EUR/MWh reflects higher average sourcing costs due to competing demand. The remaining 51 EUR/MWh is the difference between the global-market price and the delivered portfolio's average cost. In several regions, wholesale prices rise while average delivered costs fall. Hydrogen strategies should distinguish delivered-cost benchmarks from market-price expectations, as low-cost supply does not guarantee low regional market prices.
ER -