Discrepancies between climate velocity and dispersal capacity threaten subalpine forests in Northern Italy
Abstract
The acceleration of anthropogenic warming is fundamentally altering the climatic space available to foundational conifer species in European alpine environments. This study evaluates the potential impacts of future climate scenarios on the spatial distribution and elevational displacement of four key taxa (Abies alba, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris) in the Italian Alps. We employed an ensemble modeling framework, integrating climatic and topographic predictors under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for mid- (2050) and late-century (2070) time horizons. The projections indicate a universal trajectory of habitat contraction and forced upslope migration across all modeled taxa, primarily driven by temperature and precipitation seasonality. While A. alba demonstrated relative spatial stability under moderate warming, P. abies exhibited the highest vulnerability, with a projected 87.8% reduction in climatically suitable area by 2070 under the high-emission scenario. Elevational analyses revealed that A. alba, L. decidua, and P. sylvestris would require sustained upslope migration velocities exceeding 70 meters per decade to track their optimal thermal niches. Conversely, the severe niche deterioration for P. abies under extreme warming resulted in a projected net downward shift, indicating a potential restriction to localized topographic micro-refugia rather than a biological migration. The required climate velocities substantially exceed the natural seed dispersal capacities of these long-lived conifers, introducing a pronounced migration lag. Consequently, relying solely on natural regeneration may prove insufficient to maintain current distributions. Sustaining these alpine forests will likely require targeted climate-adaptive management, including the protection of micro-refugia and the evaluation of assisted migration.
Related
- Intensified human pressures threaten global mountain vertebrate biodiversity
- Two Kinds of Mental Privacy: What Speech Decoding Does and Does Not Threaten.
- Projected habitat loss and spatial redistribution of two alpine and subalpine species in Himachal Pradesh, Western Himalaya under CMIP6 scenarios
- Overcoming Alpine Barriers: The First Documented Case of Golden Jackal ( Canis aureus ) Settlement in a Subalpine Environment
- Chromosome-scale Daphnia magna genome assembly resolves scaffolding discrepancies
BibTeX
@misc{sorboni2026discrepancies,
title = {{Discrepancies between climate velocity and dispersal capacity threaten subalpine forests in Northern Italy}},
author = {Saman Ghasemian Sorboni},
howpublished = {EcoEvoRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.32942/x2qd7x},
url = {https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15718/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Discrepancies between climate velocity and dispersal capacity threaten subalpine forests in Northern Italy
AU - Saman Ghasemian Sorboni
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/29
PB - EcoEvoRxiv
DO - 10.32942/x2qd7x
UR - https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/15718/
AB - The acceleration of anthropogenic warming is fundamentally altering the climatic space available to foundational conifer species in European alpine environments. This study evaluates the potential impacts of future climate scenarios on the spatial distribution and elevational displacement of four key taxa (Abies alba, Larix decidua, Picea abies, and Pinus sylvestris) in the Italian Alps. We employed an ensemble modeling framework, integrating climatic and topographic predictors under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for mid- (2050) and late-century (2070) time horizons. The projections indicate a universal trajectory of habitat contraction and forced upslope migration across all modeled taxa, primarily driven by temperature and precipitation seasonality. While A. alba demonstrated relative spatial stability under moderate warming, P. abies exhibited the highest vulnerability, with a projected 87.8% reduction in climatically suitable area by 2070 under the high-emission scenario. Elevational analyses revealed that A. alba, L. decidua, and P. sylvestris would require sustained upslope migration velocities exceeding 70 meters per decade to track their optimal thermal niches. Conversely, the severe niche deterioration for P. abies under extreme warming resulted in a projected net downward shift, indicating a potential restriction to localized topographic micro-refugia rather than a biological migration. The required climate velocities substantially exceed the natural seed dispersal capacities of these long-lived conifers, introducing a pronounced migration lag. Consequently, relying solely on natural regeneration may prove insufficient to maintain current distributions. Sustaining these alpine forests will likely require targeted climate-adaptive management, including the protection of micro-refugia and the evaluation of assisted migration.
ER -