Contrasting drivers of summer extreme hourly precipitation over the southeastern and northeastern Tibetan Plateau
4 affiliations
- 1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology and Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
- 2Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration
- 3Chinese Academy of Sciences
- 4University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract
Extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) often triggers flash floods and landslides due to the region’s complex and steep terrain, yet its inter-station covariations and formation mechanisms remain inadequately understood. Using climate network analysis of hourly station data and dynamic diagnostics, this study examines EHP synchronicity across the southeastern and northeastern TP and elucidates the underlying mechanisms from a perspective of sea surface temperature (SST)-forced circulation evolution. Results show weak inter-regional synchronization of EHP occurrence between the southeastern and northeastern TP, along with an insignificant correlation in EHP frequency (EHPF) between the two subregions, indicating largely independent governing physical processes. The southeastern TP EHPF is controlled by an upper-tropospheric South Asian anticyclone and a low-level anticyclone over the Arabian Sea. The South Asian anticyclone weakens after 2000, accompanied by intensified cyclonic circulation over the northern TP. In contrast, the northeastern TP EHPF is dominated by a quasi-barotropic Northeast Asian anticyclone throughout the entire period. SST drivers of EHPF over these two subregions exhibit both regional differences and interdecadal shifts. During 1979–1999, southeastern TP EHPF is linked to an eastern North Atlantic tripole (NAT) SST anomaly pattern through a teleconnection wave train, whereas northeastern TP EHPF correlates with a western NAT configuration. After 2000, Eurasian Arctic SST anomalies emerge as dominant signals—a dipole pattern for the southeastern TP and a uniform warming pattern for the northeastern TP. These results underscore the need for region-specific EHP analysis and prediction strategies and highlight the growing role of the Arctic.
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BibTeX
@article{jiang2026contrasting,
title = {{Contrasting drivers of summer extreme hourly precipitation over the southeastern and northeastern Tibetan Plateau}},
author = {Jilan Jiang and Lun Li and Yimin Liu},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb398},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb398},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Contrasting drivers of summer extreme hourly precipitation over the southeastern and northeastern Tibetan Plateau
AU - Jilan Jiang
AU - Lun Li
AU - Yimin Liu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb398
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb398
AB - Extreme hourly precipitation (EHP) across the Tibetan Plateau (TP) often triggers flash floods and landslides due to the region’s complex and steep terrain, yet its inter-station covariations and formation mechanisms remain inadequately understood. Using climate network analysis of hourly station data and dynamic diagnostics, this study examines EHP synchronicity across the southeastern and northeastern TP and elucidates the underlying mechanisms from a perspective of sea surface temperature (SST)-forced circulation evolution. Results show weak inter-regional synchronization of EHP occurrence between the southeastern and northeastern TP, along with an insignificant correlation in EHP frequency (EHPF) between the two subregions, indicating largely independent governing physical processes. The southeastern TP EHPF is controlled by an upper-tropospheric South Asian anticyclone and a low-level anticyclone over the Arabian Sea. The South Asian anticyclone weakens after 2000, accompanied by intensified cyclonic circulation over the northern TP. In contrast, the northeastern TP EHPF is dominated by a quasi-barotropic Northeast Asian anticyclone throughout the entire period. SST drivers of EHPF over these two subregions exhibit both regional differences and interdecadal shifts. During 1979–1999, southeastern TP EHPF is linked to an eastern North Atlantic tripole (NAT) SST anomaly pattern through a teleconnection wave train, whereas northeastern TP EHPF correlates with a western NAT configuration. After 2000, Eurasian Arctic SST anomalies emerge as dominant signals—a dipole pattern for the southeastern TP and a uniform warming pattern for the northeastern TP. These results underscore the need for region-specific EHP analysis and prediction strategies and highlight the growing role of the Arctic.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -