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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0PLOS One

Ecological traits predict extinction risk of the world’s traded carnivores

  • Erik Joaquín Torres-Romero1
  • Maximilian L. Allen2
  • Vincent Nijman3
  • Moreno Di Marco4
  • Christopher J. O’Bryan5
  • Vincenzo Penteriani6
6 affiliations
  1. 1Ingeniería en Biotecnología-Universidad Politécnica de Puebla, San Mateo Cuanalá, Juan C. Bonilla, C.P 72640, Puebla, Mexico
  2. 2Tecnológico Nacional de México campus Zacapoaxtla. Subdirección de Investigación y Posgrado, División de Biología, Carretera Acuaco-Zacapoaxtla Km. 8, Col. Totoltepec, Zacapoaxtla, C.P. 73680, Puebla, Mexico
  3. 3Red Nacional en Tecnologías Ambientales y Biotecnológicas para los Ecosistemas, Tecnológico Nacional de México, Puebla, Mexico
  4. 4Illinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Champaign, Illinois, United States of America
  5. 5School of Biological and Medical Sciences, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, United Kingdom
  6. 6IUCN/SSC Bear Specialist Group, Gland, Switzerland
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Abstract

Wildlife trade is a major driver of biodiversity loss, yet how trade interacts with species’ ecological traits and extinction risk remains underexplored. Carnivores warrant special attention because they are disproportionately exploited and vulnerable to extinction compared to other taxa. We analyzed 171,637 international trade records spanning 50 years (1975–2024) for 129 carnivore species listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We analyzed trade volumes across the globe and then used logistic regression to evaluate associations between ecological traits and extinction risk, as well as family-level differences in extinction risk. Trade volumes were dominated by exports from North America and Europe and imports concentrated in East Asia, highlighting persistent transcontinental trade. Logistic regression identified longer generation length and greater dispersal distance as positively associated with higher extinction risk, whereas broader habitat breadth was associated with lower extinction risk. Among carnivore families, only Ursidae (bears) exhibited significantly greater odds of being threatened relative to the Canidae (canids) reference family. Our findings demonstrate that ecological traits are associated with extinction risk within CITES-listed carnivores, supporting the use of trait-based approaches as a complementary tool for conservation assessment and monitoring of internationally traded species.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{torresromero2026ecological,
  title = {{Ecological traits predict extinction risk of the world’s traded carnivores}},
  author = {Erik Joaquín Torres-Romero and Maximilian L. Allen and Vincent Nijman and Moreno Di Marco and Christopher J. O’Bryan and Vincenzo Penteriani},
  journal = {PLOS One},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0362196},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0362196},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Ecological traits predict extinction risk of the world’s traded carnivores
AU  - Erik Joaquín Torres-Romero
AU  - Maximilian L. Allen
AU  - Vincent Nijman
AU  - Moreno Di Marco
AU  - Christopher J. O’Bryan
AU  - Vincenzo Penteriani
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/05
JO  - PLOS One
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0362196
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0362196
AB  - Wildlife trade is a major driver of biodiversity loss, yet how trade interacts with species’ ecological traits and extinction risk remains underexplored. Carnivores warrant special attention because they are disproportionately exploited and vulnerable to extinction compared to other taxa. We analyzed 171,637 international trade records spanning 50 years (1975–2024) for 129 carnivore species listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We analyzed trade volumes across the globe and then used logistic regression to evaluate associations between ecological traits and extinction risk, as well as family-level differences in extinction risk. Trade volumes were dominated by exports from North America and Europe and imports concentrated in East Asia, highlighting persistent transcontinental trade. Logistic regression identified longer generation length and greater dispersal distance as positively associated with higher extinction risk, whereas broader habitat breadth was associated with lower extinction risk. Among carnivore families, only Ursidae (bears) exhibited significantly greater odds of being threatened relative to the Canidae (canids) reference family. Our findings demonstrate that ecological traits are associated with extinction risk within CITES-listed carnivores, supporting the use of trait-based approaches as a complementary tool for conservation assessment and monitoring of internationally traded species.
SN  - 1932-6203
ER  -