Prediction with Five Experts and Geometric Stopping: A Probabilistic Construction and Analytic Verification
Abstract
We present a solution of the limiting five-expert prediction problem with geometric stopping, based on stochastic calculus and partial differential equations. If δ is the stopping probability, the minimax expected regret from tied initial scores is 45π2/(512√(2δ))+o(δ−1/2) as δ↓0. The adversarial rank control selecting the best and third-best experts maximizes the limiting Hamiltonian at every state. Following the four-expert construction of Bayraktar, Ekren, and Zhang (2020), we represent the value correction as a discounted boundary-local-time expectation for a degenerate obliquely reflected Brownian motion. The hyperbolic systems governing its boundary traces are derived and solved explicitly. To verify the nonlinear Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation, we combine heat-equation minimum principles in equality directions, ODE minimum principles applied to convex combinations of multiple controls, and comparisons across controls. These arguments reduce the 48 regional control inequalities to a few lower-dimensional boundary problems, with the remaining signs established by explicit monotonicity arguments and by factorization of multivariate integral kernels that are positive polynomials in some of their variables. We prove global C2 regularity across both regional interfaces and changes in rank ordering. We also show that the alternating COMB control only attains the limiting Hamiltonian maximum exactly when the two highest scores coincide and the third- and fourth-highest scores coincide.
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BibTeX
@misc{bayraktar2026prediction,
title = {{Prediction with Five Experts and Geometric Stopping: A Probabilistic Construction and Analytic Verification}},
author = {Erhan Bayraktar and Ibrahim Ekren and Nikolaos Kolliopoulos},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.17986},
eprint = {2609.17986},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17986},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Prediction with Five Experts and Geometric Stopping: A Probabilistic Construction and Analytic Verification
AU - Erhan Bayraktar
AU - Ibrahim Ekren
AU - Nikolaos Kolliopoulos
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.17986
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17986
AB - We present a solution of the limiting five-expert prediction problem with geometric stopping, based on stochastic calculus and partial differential equations. If δ is the stopping probability, the minimax expected regret from tied initial scores is 45π^2/(512√(2δ))+o(δ^−1/2) as δ↓0. The adversarial rank control selecting the best and third-best experts maximizes the limiting Hamiltonian at every state. Following the four-expert construction of Bayraktar, Ekren, and Zhang (2020), we represent the value correction as a discounted boundary-local-time expectation for a degenerate obliquely reflected Brownian motion. The hyperbolic systems governing its boundary traces are derived and solved explicitly. To verify the nonlinear Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation, we combine heat-equation minimum principles in equality directions, ODE minimum principles applied to convex combinations of multiple controls, and comparisons across controls. These arguments reduce the 48 regional control inequalities to a few lower-dimensional boundary problems, with the remaining signs established by explicit monotonicity arguments and by factorization of multivariate integral kernels that are positive polynomials in some of their variables. We prove global C^2 regularity across both regional interfaces and changes in rank ordering. We also show that the alternating COMB control only attains the limiting Hamiltonian maximum exactly when the two highest scores coincide and the third- and fourth-highest scores coincide.
ER -