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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

Binary neutron stars in the next-generation era: Multi-messenger detection prospects and constraints on the equation of state, mass distribution, and cosmology

  • Hauke Koehn1
  • Thibeau Wouters2,3
  • Gilad Sadeh4
  • Peter T H Pang3,2
  • Mattia Bulla5,6,7
  • Chris Van Den Broeck2,3
  • Michael W Coughlin8
  • Tim Dietrich1,4
8 affiliations
  1. 1University of Potsdam, Institute of Physics and Astronomy , Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24/25, 14476, Potsdam ,
  2. 2Institute for Gravitational and Subatomic Physics (GRASP), Utrecht University , Princetonplein 1, 3584 CC Utrecht ,
  3. 3Nikhef , Science Park 105, 1098 XG Amsterdam ,
  4. 4Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics (Albert Einstein Institute) , Am Mühlenberg 1, Potsdam 14476 ,
  5. 5University of Ferrara Department of Physics and Earth Science, , via Saragat 1, I-44122 Ferrara ,
  6. 6INFN, Sezione di Ferrara , via Saragat 1, I-44122 Ferrara ,
  7. 7INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico d’Abruzzo , via Mentore Maggini snc, 64100 Teramo ,
  8. 8School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota , Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 ,
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Abstract

Next-generation gravitational-wave (GW) observatories will provide crucial insights into the nature of neutron star (NS) matter and the cosmological expansion history. We estimate the number of multi-messenger detections of binary neutron stars (BNS) with the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) and project the resulting constraints on the equation of state (EOS), BNS mass distribution, and cosmology using joint hierarchical Bayesian inference. Our results rely on specific assumptions for the merger rate, EOS, and mass distribution; we consider two different mass functions, a narrow one centred around 1.4 M⊙ and a wide one ranging from 1.1 to 2 M⊙, and a merger rate with a local value of 107 Gpc−3 yr−1. Under this setup, our mock follow-up algorithm results in between ∼40 and ∼100 short-term electromagnetic counterparts per year for ET, depending on the detector layout and mass distribution. In a joint network with CE, this number ranges from ∼100 to ∼500. Additionally, we project tens to hundreds of late-time afterglow detections from gamma-ray bursts or KNe. Based on the generated multi-messenger events, we perform an injection campaign to hierarchically recover the EOS, mass distribution, and cosmology in a fully Bayesian framework. Focussing on KN events from ET alone, the multi-messenger data from our largest analysed catalogue with 78 events can constrain the canonical NS radius R1.4 to ≲ 0.2 km and the Hubble constant H0 to ≲ 1 km s−1 Mpc−1, at least in absence of systematic modelling offsets. By comparing inference results that are solely based on GW data and those incorporating light-curve information, we find that while the latter has negligible impact on the EOS constraints, it can benefit the inference of cosmological parameters.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{koehn2026binary,
  title = {{Binary neutron stars in the next-generation era: Multi-messenger detection prospects and constraints on the equation of state, mass distribution, and cosmology}},
  author = {Hauke Koehn and Thibeau Wouters and Gilad Sadeh and Peter T H Pang and Mattia Bulla and Chris Van Den Broeck and Michael W Coughlin and Tim Dietrich},
  journal = {Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1093/mnras/stag1948},
  url = {https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stag1948/8914592},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Binary neutron stars in the next-generation era: Multi-messenger detection prospects and constraints on the equation of state, mass distribution, and cosmology
AU  - Hauke Koehn
AU  - Thibeau Wouters
AU  - Gilad Sadeh
AU  - Peter T H Pang
AU  - Mattia Bulla
AU  - Chris Van Den Broeck
AU  - Michael W Coughlin
AU  - Tim Dietrich
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/13
JO  - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
DO  - 10.1093/mnras/stag1948
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stag1948/8914592
AB  - Next-generation gravitational-wave (GW) observatories will provide crucial insights into the nature of neutron star (NS) matter and the cosmological expansion history. We estimate the number of multi-messenger detections of binary neutron stars (BNS) with the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE) and project the resulting constraints on the equation of state (EOS), BNS mass distribution, and cosmology using joint hierarchical Bayesian inference. Our results rely on specific assumptions for the merger rate, EOS, and mass distribution; we consider two different mass functions, a narrow one centred around 1.4 M⊙ and a wide one ranging from 1.1 to 2 M⊙, and a merger rate with a local value of 107 Gpc−3 yr−1. Under this setup, our mock follow-up algorithm results in between ∼40 and ∼100 short-term electromagnetic counterparts per year for ET, depending on the detector layout and mass distribution. In a joint network with CE, this number ranges from ∼100 to ∼500. Additionally, we project tens to hundreds of late-time afterglow detections from gamma-ray bursts or KNe. Based on the generated multi-messenger events, we perform an injection campaign to hierarchically recover the EOS, mass distribution, and cosmology in a fully Bayesian framework. Focussing on KN events from ET alone, the multi-messenger data from our largest analysed catalogue with 78 events can constrain the canonical NS radius R1.4 to ≲ 0.2 km and the Hubble constant H0 to ≲ 1 km s−1 Mpc−1, at least in absence of systematic modelling offsets. By comparing inference results that are solely based on GW data and those incorporating light-curve information, we find that while the latter has negligible impact on the EOS constraints, it can benefit the inference of cosmological parameters.
SN  - 0035-8711
SN  - 1365-2966
ER  -