The Decline of Seasonal Snowpack by Mid‐Century in Mountainous National Parks of the Iberian Peninsula
Abstract
Mountain ecosystems are rapidly evolving in the face of climate change, especially when they host seasonal snowpack which is highly sensitive to temperature changes. The mission of national parks to preserve natural areas is challenged by the impacts of changing snow conditions on the hydrology, the landscapes, the vegetation, the wildlife and the human activities. Here, we present projections of the snowpack state by mid‐century in the five mountainous national parks of the Iberian Peninsula hosting seasonal snowpack. We used EURO‐CORDEX climate projection downscaled at 250 m resolution to force a physically based energy and mass balance snow model (Snowmodel). The snow mass and snow cover duration were found to shrink in all the national parks and greenhouse gas emission scenarios considered. The high spatial resolution simulations revealed a strong altitudinal gradient with increasing reduction with elevation for national parks with shallow snowpacks. The fractions of ablation due to snowmelt and sublimation were found to remain similar in the future. The lack of high‐elevation area makes the Guadarrama National Park the most exposed to snow loss. The sensitivity of the average SWE change to temperature increase was surprisingly similar for the other parks despite contrasted climate such as Picos de Europa in the North and Sierra Nevada in the South. The varying impact on these parks thus depends on the local intensity of climate change projected leading to more losses in the South than the North.
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BibTeX
@article{deschampsberger2026decline,
title = {{The Decline of Seasonal Snowpack by Mid‐Century in Mountainous National Parks of the Iberian Peninsula}},
author = {César Deschamps‐berger and Juan‐ignacio López‐moreno and Jesus Revuelto and Laura Sourp and Silvia Terzago and Marion Réveillet and Fergus Reig and Francisco Rojas‐heredia and Esteban Alonso‐gonzález},
journal = {Hydrological Processes},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1002/hyp.70716},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05802273v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The Decline of Seasonal Snowpack by Mid‐Century in Mountainous National Parks of the Iberian Peninsula
AU - César Deschamps‐berger
AU - Juan‐ignacio López‐moreno
AU - Jesus Revuelto
AU - Laura Sourp
AU - Silvia Terzago
AU - Marion Réveillet
AU - Fergus Reig
AU - Francisco Rojas‐heredia
AU - Esteban Alonso‐gonzález
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/15
JO - Hydrological Processes
DO - 10.1002/hyp.70716
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05802273v1
AB - Mountain ecosystems are rapidly evolving in the face of climate change, especially when they host seasonal snowpack which is highly sensitive to temperature changes. The mission of national parks to preserve natural areas is challenged by the impacts of changing snow conditions on the hydrology, the landscapes, the vegetation, the wildlife and the human activities. Here, we present projections of the snowpack state by mid‐century in the five mountainous national parks of the Iberian Peninsula hosting seasonal snowpack. We used EURO‐CORDEX climate projection downscaled at 250 m resolution to force a physically based energy and mass balance snow model (Snowmodel). The snow mass and snow cover duration were found to shrink in all the national parks and greenhouse gas emission scenarios considered. The high spatial resolution simulations revealed a strong altitudinal gradient with increasing reduction with elevation for national parks with shallow snowpacks. The fractions of ablation due to snowmelt and sublimation were found to remain similar in the future. The lack of high‐elevation area makes the Guadarrama National Park the most exposed to snow loss. The sensitivity of the average SWE change to temperature increase was surprisingly similar for the other parks despite contrasted climate such as Picos de Europa in the North and Sierra Nevada in the South. The varying impact on these parks thus depends on the local intensity of climate change projected leading to more losses in the South than the North.
SN - 0885-6087
SN - 1099-1085
ER -