Serum sCD163: a novel predictor of early neurological deterioration in non-reperfused acute ischemic stroke

Abstract

Background and purposeEarly neurological deterioration (END) is a common complication in non-reperfused acute ischemic stroke (AIS), yet reliable predictors are lacking. Soluble CD163 (sCD163), a monocyte/macrophage activation marker, is linked to neuroinflammation, but its role in non-reperfused END is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the serum sCD163–END association and externally validate a prediction model.MethodsIn this two-center prospective study, 664 non-reperfused AIS (training) and 300 (validation) patients were enrolled. Serum sCD163 was measured within 24 h. END was defined as an NIHSS increase ≥2 within 72 h. LASSO and multivariable logistic regression identified predictors and built a prediction model, with bootstrap internal and independent external validation assessing discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis.ResultsEND occurred in 142 (21.4%) training and 65 (21.7%) validation patients. END patients had higher sCD163 (779 ± 110 vs. 690 ± 103 ng/mL training; 777 ± 110 vs. 685 ± 110 ng/mL validation, both P < 0.001). sCD163 independently predicted END (adjusted OR = 2.09 per 10 ng/mL, 95% CI: 1.72–2.54, P < 0.001). The prediction model showed good discrimination (bootstrap-corrected AUC = 0.887, 95% CI: 0.841–0.920; external AUC = 0.866, 95% CI: 0.819–0.903), calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow P = 0.408 and 0.447), and positive net benefit in decision curve analysis. Adding sCD163 improved reclassification (NRI = 0.218, P = 0.003; IDI = 0.032, P = 0.001).ConclusionsSerum sCD163 independently predicts END in non-reperfused AIS. The prediction model incorporating sCD163, baseline NIHSS, neutrophil percentage, and C-reactive protein offers a validated risk stratification tool.

Screening Plants for Electrokinetic Petroleum Remediation: Tall Fescue Outperforms by Mitigating Soil Electrochemical Deterioration
Peng Gao, Songyan Liu, Junhong Li +2
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)1 Oct 2026Peer-reviewedCC BYFull textPlant biologyEurope PMC
A Context-Aware 14-3-3 Binding Predictor Enabled by Data Augmentation, Multi-Scale Biological Features, and Protein Language Model Embeddings
L. Liu, Z. Wang, X. Huang
bioRxiv18 Sep 2026PreprintAll rights reservedFull textBioinformatics & computational biologybioRxiv
Combination of Clinical Frailty Score and Myostatin Concentrations as Mortality Predictor in Hemodialysis Patients
Sophie Cornet, Kevin Quinonez, Xavier Warling +5
Journal of Renal Nutrition11 Sep 2026Peer-reviewedLicence not stated3 citedGeneral biologyHAL
Multiscale fracture resistance of human annulus fibrosus and its deterioration with degeneration
X. Lan, N. R. H. Singh, T. Xie +10
bioRxiv20 Oct 2026PreprintCC BY-NCFull textSystems & synthetic biologybioRxiv
Quality deterioration characteristics and metabolomic analysis of nano-packaged Venus Golden apples under dynamic temperature fluctuations
Xiaodong Zheng, Shaoxiang Pan, Zhen Wang +7
Food Chemistry: X15 Oct 2026Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-ND 4.0Full textPlant biologyPMCEurope PMC

Cite

BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@article{yan2026serum,
  title = {{Serum sCD163: a novel predictor of early neurological deterioration in non-reperfused acute ischemic stroke}},
  author = {Meijuan Yan and Lihui Shao and Jun Lu},
  journal = {Frontiers in Immunology},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.3389/fimmu.2026.1960983},
  url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2026.1960983},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

RIS

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Serum sCD163: a novel predictor of early neurological deterioration in non-reperfused acute ischemic stroke
AU  - Meijuan Yan
AU  - Lihui Shao
AU  - Jun Lu
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/04
JO  - Frontiers in Immunology
DO  - 10.3389/fimmu.2026.1960983
UR  - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2026.1960983
AB  - Background and purposeEarly neurological deterioration (END) is a common complication in non-reperfused acute ischemic stroke (AIS), yet reliable predictors are lacking. Soluble CD163 (sCD163), a monocyte/macrophage activation marker, is linked to neuroinflammation, but its role in non-reperfused END is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the serum sCD163–END association and externally validate a prediction model.MethodsIn this two-center prospective study, 664 non-reperfused AIS (training) and 300 (validation) patients were enrolled. Serum sCD163 was measured within 24 h. END was defined as an NIHSS increase ≥2 within 72 h. LASSO and multivariable logistic regression identified predictors and built a prediction model, with bootstrap internal and independent external validation assessing discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis.ResultsEND occurred in 142 (21.4%) training and 65 (21.7%) validation patients. END patients had higher sCD163 (779 ± 110 vs. 690 ± 103 ng/mL training; 777 ± 110 vs. 685 ± 110 ng/mL validation, both P < 0.001). sCD163 independently predicted END (adjusted OR = 2.09 per 10 ng/mL, 95% CI: 1.72–2.54, P < 0.001). The prediction model showed good discrimination (bootstrap-corrected AUC = 0.887, 95% CI: 0.841–0.920; external AUC = 0.866, 95% CI: 0.819–0.903), calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow P = 0.408 and 0.447), and positive net benefit in decision curve analysis. Adding sCD163 improved reclassification (NRI = 0.218, P = 0.003; IDI = 0.032, P = 0.001).ConclusionsSerum sCD163 independently predicts END in non-reperfused AIS. The prediction model incorporating sCD163, baseline NIHSS, neutrophil percentage, and C-reactive protein offers a validated risk stratification tool.
SN  - 1664-3224
ER  -

Abstract

Related

Cite