TDCOSMO 2026: new insights on the Hubble tension from strong lensing time delays
Abstract
We discuss the measurement of the Hubble constant (H0) in flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology based on the blind hierarchical analysis of 11 multiply-imaged quasars (hereafter the TDCOSMO-2026 sample) and described in greater detail in a companion paper. In addition to the time delays, we use lens models based on high-resolution imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), analyzed jointly with axisymmetric dynamical models based on JWST-NIRSpec, VLT-MUSE, and Keck-KCWI spectroscopy. Our primary result H0=71.1+2.4−2.3 km.s−1.Mpc−1 is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with Ωm constraints from the DES-Dovekie supernova (SN) dataset. Our 3% precision accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. Importantly, our measurement is independent of the local distance ladder (LDL). Among individual late-universe probes, only the traditional LDL is more precise. We discuss our result in the context of the Hubble tension, the difference between H0 measured in the late universe and the prediction based on early-universe probes such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We construct combinations of independent late-universe probes and show that the tension with the Planck CMB prediction is robust to excluding any one of the methods based on Type-Ia Supernovae, Cepheids, or the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. For example, we construct a 'no-SN' H0 measurement, by replacing the DES-Dovekie constraint on Ωm with that from DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, and then combining TDCOSMO-2026 with independent non-SN late-universe probes. This 'no-SN' late-universe probe is in 3.7σ tension with Planck. Even after completely excluding the LDL, the tension with Planck persists at the 2.7σ level.
Related
- TDCOSMO 2026: A 3% measurement of the Hubble constant from strong lensing and stellar kinematics
- TDCOSMO XXVIII. The Hubble constant from the quadruply lensed quasar J1537−3010 with precise time delays
- The Hubble Tension: A Decade Review
- Revisiting the Hubble tension with an inverse power-law early dark energy
- Stars Would Remember a Recent Gravitational Transition: Testing G-step Resolutions of the Hubble Tension with Red Dwarfs
BibTeX
@misc{birrer2026tdcosmo,
title = {{TDCOSMO 2026: new insights on the Hubble tension from strong lensing time delays}},
author = {Simon Birrer and Michele Cappellari and Frédéric Courbin and Christopher D Fassnacht and Pierre Fleury and Joshua A Frieman and Aymeric Galan and Xiang-Yu Huang and Daniel P Johnson and Sanjana Khanolkar and Shawn Knabel and Hrvoje Krizic and Martin Millon and Takahiro Morishita and Veronica Motta and Pritom Mozumdar and Eric Paic and Hadrien Paugnat and Allan G Schweinfurth and Anowar J Shajib and William Sheu and Dominique Sluse and Massimo Stiavelli and Sherry H Suyu and Tommaso Treu and Felipe Urcelay and Devon M Williams and Kenneth C Wong},
howpublished = {HAL},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.14881},
eprint = {2610.14881},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05834678v1},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - TDCOSMO 2026: new insights on the Hubble tension from strong lensing time delays
AU - Simon Birrer
AU - Michele Cappellari
AU - Frédéric Courbin
AU - Christopher D Fassnacht
AU - Pierre Fleury
AU - Joshua A Frieman
AU - Aymeric Galan
AU - Xiang-Yu Huang
AU - Daniel P Johnson
AU - Sanjana Khanolkar
AU - Shawn Knabel
AU - Hrvoje Krizic
AU - Martin Millon
AU - Takahiro Morishita
AU - Veronica Motta
AU - Pritom Mozumdar
AU - Eric Paic
AU - Hadrien Paugnat
AU - Allan G Schweinfurth
AU - Anowar J Shajib
AU - William Sheu
AU - Dominique Sluse
AU - Massimo Stiavelli
AU - Sherry H Suyu
AU - Tommaso Treu
AU - Felipe Urcelay
AU - Devon M Williams
AU - Kenneth C Wong
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/22
PB - HAL
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.14881
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05834678v1
AB - We discuss the measurement of the Hubble constant (H_0) in flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology based on the blind hierarchical analysis of 11 multiply-imaged quasars (hereafter the TDCOSMO-2026 sample) and described in greater detail in a companion paper. In addition to the time delays, we use lens models based on high-resolution imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), analyzed jointly with axisymmetric dynamical models based on JWST-NIRSpec, VLT-MUSE, and Keck-KCWI spectroscopy. Our primary result H_0=71.1^+2.4_−2.3 km.s^−1.Mpc^−1 is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with Ω_m constraints from the DES-Dovekie supernova (SN) dataset. Our 3% precision accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. Importantly, our measurement is independent of the local distance ladder (LDL). Among individual late-universe probes, only the traditional LDL is more precise. We discuss our result in the context of the Hubble tension, the difference between H_0 measured in the late universe and the prediction based on early-universe probes such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We construct combinations of independent late-universe probes and show that the tension with the Planck CMB prediction is robust to excluding any one of the methods based on Type-Ia Supernovae, Cepheids, or the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. For example, we construct a 'no-SN' H_0 measurement, by replacing the DES-Dovekie constraint on Ω_m with that from DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, and then combining TDCOSMO-2026 with independent non-SN late-universe probes. This 'no-SN' late-universe probe is in 3.7σ tension with Planck. Even after completely excluding the LDL, the tension with Planck persists at the 2.7σ level.
ER -