Sharp Causal Bounds for Dynamic Treatment Regimes
Abstract
We study dynamic treatment regimes under contemporaneous confounding: at each stage, an unmeasured factor may affect both treatment and the next observed state, but has no further direct effect on later stages. From the observational distribution, the causal graph, and specified structural restrictions on possible next states, we construct at each state--treatment pair the set of transition probabilities compatible with this information. These local sets require no sensitivity parameter and can be combined by backward induction to obtain lower and upper bounds on the expected outcome under any given treatment regime. Our main result shows that these bounds are sharp: their endpoints are exactly the smallest and largest expected outcomes generated by causal models compatible with the same observational distribution, causal graph, and structural restrictions. The same backward-induction method gives a maximin rule for choosing treatments by maximizing the worst-case expected outcome. Thus, for this class of models with contemporaneous confounding, the framework generalizes the classical g-formula of \citet{Robins1986} for evaluating treatment regimes and the Q-learning framework of \citet{Murphy2003} for selecting them. When the local transition probabilities are identified, the two recursions reduce to these classical methods.
Related
- The Missing Corner: When Sharp Causal Bounds Fail to Compose
- Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes for Personalized Education: A Tutorial and Applications with Machine Learning
- Nonparametric Efficient Estimation of Dynamic Treatment Regimes with Competing Risks
- Deformed Q-learning for High-Dimensional Dynamic Treatment Regimes
- Sharp Bounds on Continuous Treatment Effects under Unobserved Confounding
BibTeX
@misc{alvarez2026sharp,
title = {{Sharp Causal Bounds for Dynamic Treatment Regimes}},
author = {Alexander Alvarez and Sebastian E. Ferrando},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.06397},
eprint = {2609.06397},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06397},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Sharp Causal Bounds for Dynamic Treatment Regimes
AU - Alexander Alvarez
AU - Sebastian E. Ferrando
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/06
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.06397
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06397
AB - We study dynamic treatment regimes under contemporaneous confounding: at each stage, an unmeasured factor may affect both treatment and the next observed state, but has no further direct effect on later stages. From the observational distribution, the causal graph, and specified structural restrictions on possible next states, we construct at each state--treatment pair the set of transition probabilities compatible with this information. These local sets require no sensitivity parameter and can be combined by backward induction to obtain lower and upper bounds on the expected outcome under any given treatment regime. Our main result shows that these bounds are sharp: their endpoints are exactly the smallest and largest expected outcomes generated by causal models compatible with the same observational distribution, causal graph, and structural restrictions. The same backward-induction method gives a maximin rule for choosing treatments by maximizing the worst-case expected outcome. Thus, for this class of models with contemporaneous confounding, the framework generalizes the classical g-formula of \citet{Robins1986} for evaluating treatment regimes and the Q-learning framework of \citet{Murphy2003} for selecting them. When the local transition probabilities are identified, the two recursions reduce to these classical methods.
ER -