Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome
Abstract
The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth’s major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a ‘greener’ future of the world’s GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.
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BibTeX
@article{bourquin2026predicting,
title = {{Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome}},
author = {Massimo Bourquin and Hannes Peter and Grégoire Michoud and Susheel Bhanu Busi and Tyler J. Kohler and Andrew L. Robison and Mike Styllas and Leïla Ezzat and Aileen U. Geers and Matthias Huss and Stilianos Fodelianakis and Tom J. Battin},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4},
url = {https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-05111631v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome
AU - Massimo Bourquin
AU - Hannes Peter
AU - Grégoire Michoud
AU - Susheel Bhanu Busi
AU - Tyler J. Kohler
AU - Andrew L. Robison
AU - Mike Styllas
AU - Leïla Ezzat
AU - Aileen U. Geers
AU - Matthias Huss
AU - Stilianos Fodelianakis
AU - Tom J. Battin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/29
JO - Nature Communications
DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4
UR - https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-05111631v1
AB - The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth’s major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a ‘greener’ future of the world’s GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.
SN - 2041-1723
SN - 2041-1723
ER -