A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling

Abstract

Estimating, understanding, and communicating uncertainty is fundamental to statistical epidemiology, where model-based estimates regularly inform real-world decisions. However, sources of uncertainty are rarely formalised, and existing classifications are often inconsistent. This lack of structure hampers interpretation, model comparison, and targeted data collection. Connecting ideas from machine learning, information theory, experimental design, and health economics, we present a first-principles decision-theoretic framework that defines uncertainty as the expected loss incurred by making an estimate using incomplete information, arguing that this is a practically relevant definition for epidemiology. We show how reasoning about future data leads to a notion of expected uncertainty reduction, which induces formal definitions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We illustrate our approach with a simple worked example and a case study of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in Aotearoa New Zealand, estimating the uncertainty reduction if wastewater surveillance were expanded to the full population. We then connect our framework to relevant literature from adjacent fields, showing how it unifies and extends many of these ideas. Our article serves as a gateway for applying a wide range of approaches to epidemiological models. Altogether, our framework provides a foundation for more reliable, consistent, and policy-relevant uncertainty quantification in infectious disease epidemiology.

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BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@article{steyn2026decisiontheoretic,
  title = {{A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling}},
  author = {Nicholas Steyn and Cathal Mills and Vik Shirvaikar and Freddie Bickford Smith and Christl A Donnelly and Kris V Parag},
  journal = {American Journal of Epidemiology},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1093/aje/kwag154},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag154},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

RIS

TY  - JOUR
TI  - A decision-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification in epidemiological modelling
AU  - Nicholas Steyn
AU  - Cathal Mills
AU  - Vik Shirvaikar
AU  - Freddie Bickford Smith
AU  - Christl A Donnelly
AU  - Kris V Parag
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/08
JO  - American Journal of Epidemiology
DO  - 10.1093/aje/kwag154
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwag154
AB  - Estimating, understanding, and communicating uncertainty is fundamental to statistical epidemiology, where model-based estimates regularly inform real-world decisions. However, sources of uncertainty are rarely formalised, and existing classifications are often inconsistent. This lack of structure hampers interpretation, model comparison, and targeted data collection. Connecting ideas from machine learning, information theory, experimental design, and health economics, we present a first-principles decision-theoretic framework that defines uncertainty as the expected loss incurred by making an estimate using incomplete information, arguing that this is a practically relevant definition for epidemiology. We show how reasoning about future data leads to a notion of expected uncertainty reduction, which induces formal definitions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We illustrate our approach with a simple worked example and a case study of SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in Aotearoa New Zealand, estimating the uncertainty reduction if wastewater surveillance were expanded to the full population. We then connect our framework to relevant literature from adjacent fields, showing how it unifies and extends many of these ideas. Our article serves as a gateway for applying a wide range of approaches to epidemiological models. Altogether, our framework provides a foundation for more reliable, consistent, and policy-relevant uncertainty quantification in infectious disease epidemiology.
SN  - 0002-9262
SN  - 1476-6256
ER  -

Abstract

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