From carbohydrates to fats? Long-term changes in dietary patterns in Portugal (1961–2023)
Abstract
Background: Dietary patterns have changed substantially over recent decades, contributing to the rise of noncommunicable diseases. Within Popkin’s nutrition transition framework, many countries have shifted from traditional carbohydrate-based diets toward energy-dense patterns rich in fats, sugars, and animal-source foods. This study characterized the trajectory and stage of the nutritional transition in Portugal between 1961 and 2023.
Methods: Data were obtained from FAOSTAT food balance sheets. Food items were grouped according to the Portuguese Food Wheel, and daily availability (g/day/person) and energy contribution (kcal/day/person) were estimated. Macronutrient contributions were calculated and temporal trends analyzed using linear regression models.
Results: Total energy availability increased significantly (β = 14.86 kcal/day/person/year; p < 0.001). Macronutrient distribution shifted markedly: fat contribution rose (β = 0.273%/year; p < 0.001) while carbohydrates declined (β = −0.263%/year; p < 0.001), with a modest increase in protein (β = 0.052%/year; p < 0.001). The fat-to-carbohydrate ratio increased significantly, indicating progressive dietary energy densification. Food group trends showed declining availability of cereals, tubers, and legumes, alongside increases in animal-source foods, dairy products, fats, oils, and sugar products. Fruit and vegetable availability also increased. No statistically significant breakpoints were identified, suggesting a gradual transition.
Conclusions: Portugal has undergone a sustained nutritional transition consistent with Popkin’s Stage 4 (“degenerative disease” pattern), characterized by increased energy availability, a shift from carbohydrate-based staples toward fats and animal-source foods, and rising dietary energy density. These changes likely contribute to the burden of diet-related chronic diseases, highlighting the need for public health strategies promoting balanced, health-oriented, and sustainable dietary patterns.
Key messages: • Portugal shows a clear long-term shift from carbohydrates to fats, reflecting a progressive nutritional transition towards more energy-dense diets.
• Changes in food availability highlight increased consumption of animal products, fats and sugars, reinforcing the need for adequated nutrition policies.
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BibTeX
@article{cordeiro2026from,
title = {{From carbohydrates to fats? Long-term changes in dietary patterns in Portugal (1961–2023)}},
author = {TC Cordeiro and CC Gonçalves and AG Bento},
journal = {The European Journal of Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.081},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.081},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - From carbohydrates to fats? Long-term changes in dietary patterns in Portugal (1961–2023)
AU - TC Cordeiro
AU - CC Gonçalves
AU - AG Bento
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - The European Journal of Public Health
DO - 10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.081
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.081
AB - Background: Dietary patterns have changed substantially over recent decades, contributing to the rise of noncommunicable diseases. Within Popkin’s nutrition transition framework, many countries have shifted from traditional carbohydrate-based diets toward energy-dense patterns rich in fats, sugars, and animal-source foods. This study characterized the trajectory and stage of the nutritional transition in Portugal between 1961 and 2023. Methods: Data were obtained from FAOSTAT food balance sheets. Food items were grouped according to the Portuguese Food Wheel, and daily availability (g/day/person) and energy contribution (kcal/day/person) were estimated. Macronutrient contributions were calculated and temporal trends analyzed using linear regression models. Results: Total energy availability increased significantly (β = 14.86 kcal/day/person/year; p < 0.001). Macronutrient distribution shifted markedly: fat contribution rose (β = 0.273%/year; p < 0.001) while carbohydrates declined (β = −0.263%/year; p < 0.001), with a modest increase in protein (β = 0.052%/year; p < 0.001). The fat-to-carbohydrate ratio increased significantly, indicating progressive dietary energy densification. Food group trends showed declining availability of cereals, tubers, and legumes, alongside increases in animal-source foods, dairy products, fats, oils, and sugar products. Fruit and vegetable availability also increased. No statistically significant breakpoints were identified, suggesting a gradual transition. Conclusions: Portugal has undergone a sustained nutritional transition consistent with Popkin’s Stage 4 (“degenerative disease” pattern), characterized by increased energy availability, a shift from carbohydrate-based staples toward fats and animal-source foods, and rising dietary energy density. These changes likely contribute to the burden of diet-related chronic diseases, highlighting the need for public health strategies promoting balanced, health-oriented, and sustainable dietary patterns. Key messages: • Portugal shows a clear long-term shift from carbohydrates to fats, reflecting a progressive nutritional transition towards more energy-dense diets. • Changes in food availability highlight increased consumption of animal products, fats and sugars, reinforcing the need for adequated nutrition policies.
SN - 1101-1262
SN - 1464-360X
ER -