Spatial modelling of potential rockfall occurrence in Romania using the Weight of Evidence method
- 1Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest
- 2Faculty of Geography and Geology, Department of Geography, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University
- 3Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy
Abstract
Rockfalls are a destructive geo-hazard in Romania’s steep environments that pose significant material damage and loss of life, even when involving small rock volumes, owing to their high mobility and unpredictability. This study presents the first national-scale assessment of rockfall potential occurrence in Romania, applying a multi-criteria statistical and geospatial analysis based on the Weight of Evidence method. By integrating 1,743 historical rockfall sites and 19 environmental variables as driving factors, we mapped and statistically assessed the potential rockfall distribution of their occurrence across the Carpathian and Subcarpathian regions. Findings reveal that over 18,000 km2 of Romanian territory is suitable for rockfall assessment, while approximately 1,500 km2 face high rockfall occurrence potential. The Southern Carpathians emerged as the most vulnerable area, and all over the Carpathians and Subcarpathians statistical analysis highlighted that topographical and environmental factors are the primary drivers of rockfall distribution. Our model achieved 94% predictive accuracy, confirming the reliability of the resulting potential rockfall occurrence map, as well as its utility as a decision-support tool. These findings provide a robust scientific reference for national and local authorities to mitigate rockfall geohazards, manage rockfall risks and improve infrastructure resilience in Romania.
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BibTeX
@article{ovreiu2026spatial,
title = {{Spatial modelling of potential rockfall occurrence in Romania using the Weight of Evidence method}},
author = {Adriana Bianca Ovreiu and Mihai Niculiţă and Remus Prăvălie and Ionuţ Săvulescu and Bogdan Olariu and Andreea Andra-Topârceanu and Nicuşor Necula and Marius-Victor Birsan and Constantin Răzvan Oprea and Florin Bogdan Petre and Irina Diaconu and Carmen Bizdadea and Alexandra Mirea},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
month = jun,
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-58784-5},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-58784-5},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Spatial modelling of potential rockfall occurrence in Romania using the Weight of Evidence method
AU - Adriana Bianca Ovreiu
AU - Mihai Niculiţă
AU - Remus Prăvălie
AU - Ionuţ Săvulescu
AU - Bogdan Olariu
AU - Andreea Andra-Topârceanu
AU - Nicuşor Necula
AU - Marius-Victor Birsan
AU - Constantin Răzvan Oprea
AU - Florin Bogdan Petre
AU - Irina Diaconu
AU - Carmen Bizdadea
AU - Alexandra Mirea
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/06/01
JO - Scientific Reports
DO - 10.1038/s41598-026-58784-5
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-58784-5
AB - Rockfalls are a destructive geo-hazard in Romania’s steep environments that pose significant material damage and loss of life, even when involving small rock volumes, owing to their high mobility and unpredictability. This study presents the first national-scale assessment of rockfall potential occurrence in Romania, applying a multi-criteria statistical and geospatial analysis based on the Weight of Evidence method. By integrating 1,743 historical rockfall sites and 19 environmental variables as driving factors, we mapped and statistically assessed the potential rockfall distribution of their occurrence across the Carpathian and Subcarpathian regions. Findings reveal that over 18,000 km2 of Romanian territory is suitable for rockfall assessment, while approximately 1,500 km2 face high rockfall occurrence potential. The Southern Carpathians emerged as the most vulnerable area, and all over the Carpathians and Subcarpathians statistical analysis highlighted that topographical and environmental factors are the primary drivers of rockfall distribution. Our model achieved 94% predictive accuracy, confirming the reliability of the resulting potential rockfall occurrence map, as well as its utility as a decision-support tool. These findings provide a robust scientific reference for national and local authorities to mitigate rockfall geohazards, manage rockfall risks and improve infrastructure resilience in Romania.
SN - 2045-2322
ER -