Mosquito population dynamics are shaped by interactions among larval density, temperature, and relative humidity.
6 affiliations
- 1Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
- 2Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
- 3Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA.
- 4Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA.
- 5Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
- 6Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Abstract
Understanding how variation in key abiotic and biotic factors interact at ecologically relevant spatial scales is crucial for predicting population dynamics, distributions, and abundances. This is especially true for vectors that transmit human pathogens. However, studies investigating the effects of environmental variation on vectors have typically investigated environmental factors in isolation or in laboratory experiments that examine constant environmental conditions that often do not occur in the field. To address these limitations, we conducted a semi-field experiment in Athens, Georgia, using the invasive Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). We selected nine sites that varied in impervious surface and vegetation cover to explore effects of natural variation in microclimate (specifically, temperature, and relative humidity) on mosquitoes. We manipulated conspecific larval density at each site and repeated the experiment in summer and fall to further increase the variability in temperature and relative humidity. We then evaluated the original design features (land cover, larval density, and season), and their interactions, on the mean proportion of females emerging, juvenile development time, size upon emergence, and estimated per capita population growth (i.e., fitness). We found significant effects of larval density, land cover, and season on all response variables, including a non-intuitive decrease in development time with increasing larval density in fall. We repeated these analyses using the hypothesized microclimate drivers of these effects: temperature and relative humidity. In general, the model using the microclimate variables outperformed the model using land use and season, highlighting the roles of temperature and relative humidity and their interactions with density on mosquito traits and dynamics. Our study demonstrates that ignoring the interaction between variation in biotic (e.g., intraspecific competition) and abiotic (e.g., temperature and relative humidity) variables could reduce the accuracy and precision of models used to predict mosquito population and pathogen transmission dynamics, especially those inferring dynamics at finer spatial scales across which transmission and control occur.
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BibTeX
@article{solano2026mosquito,
title = {{Mosquito population dynamics are shaped by interactions among larval density, temperature, and relative humidity.}},
author = {Nicole Solano and Emily C Herring and Carl W Hintz and Philip M Newberry and Annakate M Schatz and Joseph W Walker and Gregory R Jacobs and Craig W Osenberg and Courtney C Murdock},
journal = {Ecology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1002/ecy.70521},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42836407},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Mosquito population dynamics are shaped by interactions among larval density, temperature, and relative humidity.
AU - Nicole Solano
AU - Emily C Herring
AU - Carl W Hintz
AU - Philip M Newberry
AU - Annakate M Schatz
AU - Joseph W Walker
AU - Gregory R Jacobs
AU - Craig W Osenberg
AU - Courtney C Murdock
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - Ecology
DO - 10.1002/ecy.70521
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42836407
AB - Understanding how variation in key abiotic and biotic factors interact at ecologically relevant spatial scales is crucial for predicting population dynamics, distributions, and abundances. This is especially true for vectors that transmit human pathogens. However, studies investigating the effects of environmental variation on vectors have typically investigated environmental factors in isolation or in laboratory experiments that examine constant environmental conditions that often do not occur in the field. To address these limitations, we conducted a semi-field experiment in Athens, Georgia, using the invasive Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). We selected nine sites that varied in impervious surface and vegetation cover to explore effects of natural variation in microclimate (specifically, temperature, and relative humidity) on mosquitoes. We manipulated conspecific larval density at each site and repeated the experiment in summer and fall to further increase the variability in temperature and relative humidity. We then evaluated the original design features (land cover, larval density, and season), and their interactions, on the mean proportion of females emerging, juvenile development time, size upon emergence, and estimated per capita population growth (i.e., fitness). We found significant effects of larval density, land cover, and season on all response variables, including a non-intuitive decrease in development time with increasing larval density in fall. We repeated these analyses using the hypothesized microclimate drivers of these effects: temperature and relative humidity. In general, the model using the microclimate variables outperformed the model using land use and season, highlighting the roles of temperature and relative humidity and their interactions with density on mosquito traits and dynamics. Our study demonstrates that ignoring the interaction between variation in biotic (e.g., intraspecific competition) and abiotic (e.g., temperature and relative humidity) variables could reduce the accuracy and precision of models used to predict mosquito population and pathogen transmission dynamics, especially those inferring dynamics at finer spatial scales across which transmission and control occur.
SN - 1939-9170
ER -