An all-weather microwave-based AI retrieval of pan-Arctic melt pond fraction
Abstract
Melt pond fraction (MPF) is a key variable governing Arctic sea ice albedo and seasonal sea ice predictability, yet existing pan-Arctic MPF products rely almost exclusively on optical sensors, limiting availability under cloud cover and seasonal darkness. This study presents PRISM-MPF, the first pan-Arctic, multi-year, all-weather MPF dataset, derived from PRISM (Polar Retrievals through Intelligent Sensor Merging), a machine learning framework fusing multi-source microwave observations with auxiliary thermal and spatiotemporal information to complement optical products. An XGBoost model was trained on eight melt seasons (2017-2025, excluding 2019) using Sentinel-1 C-band SAR backscatter, AMSR2 brightness temperatures and sea ice concentration, NOAA OISST sea surface temperature, and spatiotemporal descriptors (date and grid position). Three experiments assessed baseline skill and feature importance, independent sensor-group contributions (including CryoSat-2 radar freeboard), and regional specialisation, all under Leave-One-Year-Out (LOYO) cross-validation on unseen melt seasons. The baseline retrieval achieved a per-season mean R2=0.468 and RMSE=0.080 (pooled over 1,066,808 pixels: R2=0.532, RMSE=0.077), comparable to prior regional microwave-based studies, now at pan-Arctic, multi-year scale. Removing spatiotemporal features or C-band SAR reduced skill comparably (Delta R2=+0.089 and +0.085), whereas physical sensors alone outperformed spatiotemporal features alone (R2=0.375 vs 0.261), showing the two groups are complementary. Regional specialisation offered no advantage over a single pan-Arctic retrieval. This framework establishes a reproducible foundation for all-weather Arctic MPF monitoring, extensible to new sensors, longer records, and reference products.
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BibTeX
@misc{aparicio2026allweather,
title = {{An all-weather microwave-based AI retrieval of pan-Arctic melt pond fraction}},
author = {Sara Aparício and Simon Driscoll and Mark R. Drinkwater and Daniela Flocco},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2611.00940},
eprint = {2611.00940},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.00940},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - An all-weather microwave-based AI retrieval of pan-Arctic melt pond fraction
AU - Sara Aparício
AU - Simon Driscoll
AU - Mark R. Drinkwater
AU - Daniela Flocco
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/01
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2611.00940
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.00940
AB - Melt pond fraction (MPF) is a key variable governing Arctic sea ice albedo and seasonal sea ice predictability, yet existing pan-Arctic MPF products rely almost exclusively on optical sensors, limiting availability under cloud cover and seasonal darkness. This study presents PRISM-MPF, the first pan-Arctic, multi-year, all-weather MPF dataset, derived from PRISM (Polar Retrievals through Intelligent Sensor Merging), a machine learning framework fusing multi-source microwave observations with auxiliary thermal and spatiotemporal information to complement optical products. An XGBoost model was trained on eight melt seasons (2017-2025, excluding 2019) using Sentinel-1 C-band SAR backscatter, AMSR2 brightness temperatures and sea ice concentration, NOAA OISST sea surface temperature, and spatiotemporal descriptors (date and grid position). Three experiments assessed baseline skill and feature importance, independent sensor-group contributions (including CryoSat-2 radar freeboard), and regional specialisation, all under Leave-One-Year-Out (LOYO) cross-validation on unseen melt seasons. The baseline retrieval achieved a per-season mean R2=0.468 and RMSE=0.080 (pooled over 1,066,808 pixels: R2=0.532, RMSE=0.077), comparable to prior regional microwave-based studies, now at pan-Arctic, multi-year scale. Removing spatiotemporal features or C-band SAR reduced skill comparably (Delta R2=+0.089 and +0.085), whereas physical sensors alone outperformed spatiotemporal features alone (R2=0.375 vs 0.261), showing the two groups are complementary. Regional specialisation offered no advantage over a single pan-Arctic retrieval. This framework establishes a reproducible foundation for all-weather Arctic MPF monitoring, extensible to new sensors, longer records, and reference products.
ER -