Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024
- 1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
- 2Atmospheric, Earth, and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA.
Abstract
Precipitation extremes have increased globally in recent decades, consistent with a warming climate. We find that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy (≥99th percentile; F P≥99 ) precipitation events globally based on MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) observations from 1979 to 2025. This extends a long-term trend of ∼0.03%/decade in F P≥99 , with similar but more uncertain increases for the 99.9th percentile. Unlike prior high F P≥99 years, 2024’s record was more globally distributed and emerged from a distinct seasonal evolution. El Niño and rare concurrent multi-basin tropical ocean warmth drove elevated extremes early in the year, before lagged global tropospheric responses and long-term warming sustained and amplified extremes through boreal summer. Climate models indicate that years with 2024-level F P≥99 typically require either stronger El Niño forcing or concurrent multi-basin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Diagnostic projections within constrained ensemble members suggest that ∼40% of the 2024 anomaly aligns with global mean temperatures and ∼20% with El Niño variability, with some of the remainder linked to basin-scale SST structure.
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BibTeX
@article{thackeray2026recordsetting,
title = {{Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024}},
author = {Chad W. Thackeray and Jesse Norris and Alex Hall and Mark D. Zelinka and Stephen Po-Chedley},
journal = {Science Advances},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024
AU - Chad W. Thackeray
AU - Jesse Norris
AU - Alex Hall
AU - Mark D. Zelinka
AU - Stephen Po-Chedley
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/09
JO - Science Advances
DO - 10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692
UR - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692
AB - Precipitation extremes have increased globally in recent decades, consistent with a warming climate. We find that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy (≥99th percentile; F P≥99 ) precipitation events globally based on MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) observations from 1979 to 2025. This extends a long-term trend of ∼0.03%/decade in F P≥99 , with similar but more uncertain increases for the 99.9th percentile. Unlike prior high F P≥99 years, 2024’s record was more globally distributed and emerged from a distinct seasonal evolution. El Niño and rare concurrent multi-basin tropical ocean warmth drove elevated extremes early in the year, before lagged global tropospheric responses and long-term warming sustained and amplified extremes through boreal summer. Climate models indicate that years with 2024-level F P≥99 typically require either stronger El Niño forcing or concurrent multi-basin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Diagnostic projections within constrained ensemble members suggest that ∼40% of the 2024 anomaly aligns with global mean temperatures and ∼20% with El Niño variability, with some of the remainder linked to basin-scale SST structure.
SN - 2375-2548
ER -