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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-NDPreventive Medicine Reports

Age-period-cohort analysis, attributable risk factors, and trend prediction of maternal and neonatal disease burden in China and G20 countries from 1990 to 2023

  • Pengfei Qi1
  • Fan Zhang2
  1. 1Corresponding author.
  2. 2School of Clinical Medicine, Shangqiu Medical College, No. 666 Yingbin Road, Urban-Rural Integration Demonstration Zone, Shangqiu City 476299, Henan Province, China
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Abstract

Objectives: Maternal and neonatal disorders remain leading causes of death and disability, this study analyzes its trends, risks, and projects future burdens. Methods: We collected the age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability from the GBD database between 1990 and 2023. Joinpoint regression estimated average annual percentage changes. Age-period-cohort models decomposed independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Autoregressive integrated moving average models projected trends. Results: From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized mortality rates in China declining, outpacing the G20 average. However, age-standardized years lived with disability rates rose persistently in both China (0.97%) and the G20 (1.45%). Age-period-cohort analysis identified the highest incidence in women aged 25–29 years, and in newborns<5 years old; although attributable mortality fell by 97.5% in China, attributable years lived with disability decreased by only 18.3%. The fitted model projects an increase in China's age-standardized incidence rates (1065.11 per 100,000), whereas G20 is expected to decline. Conclusions: Despite remarkable mortality reductions, the persistent rise in disability—driven largely by survival of high-risk neonates and environmental risks—signals an urgent need for integrated health system strategies, and build rehabilitation planning capacity.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{qi2026ageperiodcohort,
  title = {{Age-period-cohort analysis, attributable risk factors, and trend prediction of maternal and neonatal disease burden in China and G20 countries from 1990 to 2023}},
  author = {Pengfei Qi and Fan Zhang},
  journal = {Preventive Medicine Reports},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1016/j.pmedr.2026.103678},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2026.103678},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Age-period-cohort analysis, attributable risk factors, and trend prediction of maternal and neonatal disease burden in China and G20 countries from 1990 to 2023
AU  - Pengfei Qi
AU  - Fan Zhang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/21
JO  - Preventive Medicine Reports
DO  - 10.1016/j.pmedr.2026.103678
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pmedr.2026.103678
AB  - Objectives: Maternal and neonatal disorders remain leading causes of death and disability, this study analyzes its trends, risks, and projects future burdens. Methods: We collected the age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability from the GBD database between 1990 and 2023. Joinpoint regression estimated average annual percentage changes. Age-period-cohort models decomposed independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Autoregressive integrated moving average models projected trends. Results: From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized mortality rates in China declining, outpacing the G20 average. However, age-standardized years lived with disability rates rose persistently in both China (0.97%) and the G20 (1.45%). Age-period-cohort analysis identified the highest incidence in women aged 25–29 years, and in newborns<5 years old; although attributable mortality fell by 97.5% in China, attributable years lived with disability decreased by only 18.3%. The fitted model projects an increase in China's age-standardized incidence rates (1065.11 per 100,000), whereas G20 is expected to decline. Conclusions: Despite remarkable mortality reductions, the persistent rise in disability—driven largely by survival of high-risk neonates and environmental risks—signals an urgent need for integrated health system strategies, and build rehabilitation planning capacity.
SN  - 2211-3355
ER  -