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Peer-reviewedCC BYGeoscientific model development

The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1

  • Colin Jones1
  • Isaline Bossert2
  • Donovan Dennis3,4
  • Hazel A. Jeffery5
  • CHRIS D. JONES6,7
  • Torben Koenigk8,9
  • Sina Loriani3,4
  • Benjamin Mark Sanderson10
  • Roland Séférian2
  • Klaus Wyser11,9
  • Shuting Yang12
  • Manabu Abe13
29 more authors
  • Sebastian Bathiany14,15
  • Pascale Braconnot16
  • Victor A. Brovkin17,18
  • Friedrich A. Burger19,20
  • Patricia Cadule21
  • Frederic S. Castruccio22
  • Gökhan Danabasoglu22
  • Andrea J. Dittus23
  • Jonathan F. Donges24,3,25
  • Friederike Fröb26,27
  • Thomas Frölicher19,20
  • Goran Georgievski18
  • Chuncheng Guo12
  • Aixue Hu28
  • Peter Lawrence28
  • Paul Lerner29,30
  • José Licón-Saláiz3
  • Bette L. Otto‐Bliesner28
  • Anastasia Romanou29,30
  • Elena Shevliakova31
  • Yona Silvy19,20
  • Didier Swingedouw32
  • Jerry Fong Tjiputra33
  • Jeremy P. R. B. Walton6
  • Wiltshire Andy34,6
  • Ricarda Winkelmann3,4
  • Richard Wood6
  • Tokuta Yokohata35
  • Tilo Ziehn36
36 affiliations
  1. 1University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom)
  2. 2CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  3. 3Earth Resilience Science Unit, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  4. 4Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany
  5. 5National Centre for Atmospheric Science (Leeds, United Kingdom)
  6. 6Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
  7. 7School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
  8. 8Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
  9. 9Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
  10. 10CICERO, Oslo, Norway
  11. 11MERGE, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
  12. 12National Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
  13. 13Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
  14. 14Department of Earth System Modeling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
  15. 15Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  16. 16Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, CEA, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  17. 17Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  18. 18Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
  19. 19Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
  20. 20Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
  21. 21LMD-IPSL, CNRS, Ecole normale supérieure/PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France
  22. 22US National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
  23. 23National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  24. 24Department of Integrative Earth System Science, Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany
  25. 25Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
  26. 26Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
  27. 27Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  28. 28US National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
  29. 29Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, USA
  30. 30NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA
  31. 31National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, Princeton, USA
  32. 32Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), Université de Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux, France
  33. 33NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
  34. 34Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
  35. 35Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
  36. 36CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
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Abstract

We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (CMIP7). The protocol requires ESMs to run in CO2-emission mode, with atmospheric CO2 a predicted variable. Forcing for the protocol consists solely of a constant emission of CO2, based on each model’s transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) value, to give a common global mean warming rate of 2 °C per century. This positive emission experiment is started from the pre-industrial state of a given model. When the ramp-up run first exceeds a specified level of global warming (2 °C and 4 °C) relative to the model’s pre-industrial global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT), CO2 emissions are set to zero and the positive emission run is branched into a zero-emission run. The zero-emission runs continue for 300 years. At 50 years into each zero-emission run, CO2 emissions are set to the negative of the positive emission rate and the model run until GMSAT cools below the original pre-industrial value. Additionally, when the negative emission run started from global warming level (GWL) = 4 °C first drops below GWL = 2 °C, a zero-emission run is branched off this, completing the set of experiments. Using this protocol, we are able to control the rate of global warming and cooling across participating models. TIPMIP experiments will support a range of analyses, including; an assessment of abrupt/rapid Earth system change, the long-term response to zero CO2 emissions, the response to negative CO2 emissions, the efficacy of negative emissions in driving cooling, and the reversibility of Earth system change under a pathway of positive (warming), zero (stabilization), and negative (cooling) CO2 emissions.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{jones2026tipmip,
  title = {{The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1}},
  author = {Colin Jones and Isaline Bossert and Donovan Dennis and Hazel A. Jeffery and CHRIS D. JONES and Torben Koenigk and Sina Loriani and Benjamin Mark Sanderson and Roland Séférian and Klaus Wyser and Shuting Yang and Manabu Abe and Sebastian Bathiany and Pascale Braconnot and Victor A. Brovkin and Friedrich A. Burger and Patricia Cadule and Frederic S. Castruccio and Gökhan Danabasoglu and Andrea J. Dittus and Jonathan F. Donges and Friederike Fröb and Thomas Frölicher and Goran Georgievski and Chuncheng Guo and Aixue Hu and Peter Lawrence and Paul Lerner and José Licón-Saláiz and Bette L. Otto‐Bliesner and Anastasia Romanou and Elena Shevliakova and Yona Silvy and Didier Swingedouw and Jerry Fong Tjiputra and Jeremy P. R. B. Walton and Wiltshire Andy and Ricarda Winkelmann and Richard Wood and Tokuta Yokohata and Tilo Ziehn},
  journal = {Geoscientific model development},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1
AU  - Colin Jones
AU  - Isaline Bossert
AU  - Donovan Dennis
AU  - Hazel A. Jeffery
AU  - CHRIS D. JONES
AU  - Torben Koenigk
AU  - Sina Loriani
AU  - Benjamin Mark Sanderson
AU  - Roland Séférian
AU  - Klaus Wyser
AU  - Shuting Yang
AU  - Manabu Abe
AU  - Sebastian Bathiany
AU  - Pascale Braconnot
AU  - Victor A. Brovkin
AU  - Friedrich A. Burger
AU  - Patricia Cadule
AU  - Frederic S. Castruccio
AU  - Gökhan Danabasoglu
AU  - Andrea J. Dittus
AU  - Jonathan F. Donges
AU  - Friederike Fröb
AU  - Thomas Frölicher
AU  - Goran Georgievski
AU  - Chuncheng Guo
AU  - Aixue Hu
AU  - Peter Lawrence
AU  - Paul Lerner
AU  - José Licón-Saláiz
AU  - Bette L. Otto‐Bliesner
AU  - Anastasia Romanou
AU  - Elena Shevliakova
AU  - Yona Silvy
AU  - Didier Swingedouw
AU  - Jerry Fong Tjiputra
AU  - Jeremy P. R. B. Walton
AU  - Wiltshire Andy
AU  - Ricarda Winkelmann
AU  - Richard Wood
AU  - Tokuta Yokohata
AU  - Tilo Ziehn
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/29
JO  - Geoscientific model development
DO  - 10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026
AB  - We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (CMIP7). The protocol requires ESMs to run in CO2-emission mode, with atmospheric CO2 a predicted variable. Forcing for the protocol consists solely of a constant emission of CO2, based on each model’s transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) value, to give a common global mean warming rate of 2 °C per century. This positive emission experiment is started from the pre-industrial state of a given model. When the ramp-up run first exceeds a specified level of global warming (2 °C and 4 °C) relative to the model’s pre-industrial global mean surface air temperature (GMSAT), CO2 emissions are set to zero and the positive emission run is branched into a zero-emission run. The zero-emission runs continue for 300 years. At 50 years into each zero-emission run, CO2 emissions are set to the negative of the positive emission rate and the model run until GMSAT cools below the original pre-industrial value. Additionally, when the negative emission run started from global warming level (GWL) = 4 °C first drops below GWL = 2 °C, a zero-emission run is branched off this, completing the set of experiments. Using this protocol, we are able to control the rate of global warming and cooling across participating models. TIPMIP experiments will support a range of analyses, including; an assessment of abrupt/rapid Earth system change, the long-term response to zero CO2 emissions, the response to negative CO2 emissions, the efficacy of negative emissions in driving cooling, and the reversibility of Earth system change under a pathway of positive (warming), zero (stabilization), and negative (cooling) CO2 emissions.
SN  - 1991-959X
SN  - 1991-9603
ER  -